College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions for Boston College vs. Notre Dame (Wednesday, February 16)
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- Notre Dame faces off against Boston College in a revenge game in South Bend on Wednesday night.
- The Eagles crushed the Irish in the first matchup back in December in Chestnut Hill.
- College basketball betting analyst Kyle Remillard explains why this one won't be a blowout, even if the Irish win.
Boston College vs. Notre Dame Odds
| Boston College Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 130.5 -110o / -110u | +475 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 130.5 -110o / -110u | -650 |
Boston College bested Notre Dame 73-57 in Chestnut Hill the first time these two teams met back in December. Since that matchup, these two squads have gone in opposite trajectories.
Notre Dame has been one of the hottest teams in the country since Christmas, going 11-2. With an easy six-game schedule remaining, the Fighting Irish have a real chance of winning the ACC regular-season title.
To make that a reality, the Irish need to first avenge their loss to Boston College.
The Eagles have won just three of their last 14 games since the win over Notre Dame. But the group has battled the last two weeks, staying competitive against some of the top teams in the conference.
Notre Dame has played to the level of its competition for much of the season, which may prevent it from getting a cover in this matchup.
Boston College Eagles
The final weeks of the regular season will be preparation for the ACC Tournament for Boston College.
One area the group needs serious help in is shooting the basketball. The Eagles rank outside the top 300 in 2-point and 3-point percentages. That could be an issue if Notre Dame elects to switch into its zone defense that has been elite recently.
The Eagles have won only one of their last six games, but have stayed competitive for the most part.
Boston College ranks 340th in bench minutes, with only seven players seeing the floor. Each one of them averages eight points or more per game.
The Eagles dominated Notre Dame in the first matchup, as they never trailed. They held the Irish to 29% on their 28 3-point attempts.
One of the keys to the victory was Boston College's domination on the glass. Notre Dame has struggled in that area due to its consistently undersized lineups.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Per KenPom, the Notre Dame defense has a higher efficiency rating than its offense for the first time in Mike Brey’s 28 years coaching.
The Irish ranked 203rd in defensive efficiency last season, which was the lowest ranking in Brey’s tenure. Now, they rank 57th, and are continuing to improve every game.
Notre Dame runs a man-to-man defense most of the time, but the group switches to a zone 15% of the time, per Synergy. The 2-3 zone that Notre Dame runs is more focused on defending perimeter attempts by giving the guards up top more freedom to roam.
The new methodology has proven effective, as the Irish have held their last seven opponents to below 65 points.
Notre Dame has stuck with its seven-man rotation, and ranks 327th in bench minutes per game.
The Irish commonly utilize a lineup that is undersized, playing four guards on the court at one time. That has come back to bite them in back-to-back games — Clemson forward PJ Hall scored 19 points and Louisville’s Jae’Lyn Withers scored 20.
Boston College vs. Notre Dame Betting Pick
Notre Dame is an impressive 11-3 in conference play, but it has failed to put opponents away. Its 11 wins have come by an average of just seven points.
Boston College dominated the Irish in the first matchup by crushing them on the boards. That’s one of the few bright spots for the Eagles all season, and Notre Dame has been awful at extending possessions.
Boston College should be able to do enough damage with its size to keep this game within grasp. The Eagles find 57% of their points from 2-point range, and should be able to dominate the paint. That size aided Boston College to 10 more free throw attempts in the first matchup.
Though Boston College has lost three of its last four, it has fought in each game. The Eagles hung tough with North Carolina, Virginia, Duke and Syracuse.
I anticipate the same effort in this matchup, knowing that they already handled the Irish earlier in the year.
Pick: Boston College +10.5 (Play to +9.5)
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