College Basketball Odds & Picks for Florida State vs. North Carolina: Will Heels Roll at Home?

College Basketball Odds & Picks for Florida State vs. North Carolina: Will Heels Roll at Home? article feature image

Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images. Pictured: RJ Davis (UNC)

  • North Carolina hosts Florida State in Chapel Hill for a critical ACC affair.
  • The Noles are spiraling out of control as they have lost five straight games.
  • Doug Ziefel breaks down the matchup and offers up his pick.

Florida State vs. North Carolina Odds

Saturday, Feb. 12
2 p.m. ET
Florida State Odds
-110o / -110u
North Carolina Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

Coming into the season, the ACC was thought to have multiple contenders at the top. As it turns out, conference play has broken down the contenders from the pretenders.

One of the teams that has been beaten down by their conference foes as of late is Florida State.

The Seminoles enter this matchup having lost five consecutive games to conference opponents. Time is dwindling for this Florida State team. The turnaround has to start now if it wants to build momentum heading into the conference tournament.

Standing in the Noles' way will be the North Carolina Tar Heels. Hubert Davis' club has put together a fine campaign to this point, with the only blemishes on its record coming against the teams ahead of it in the ACC standings.

North Carolina has a real shot of claiming an ACC regular-season title despite those losses. The Heels are currently just one game behind Duke and Notre Dame, both of which the Tar Heels will get a shot at before the end of the season.

However, North Carolina can't get caught looking ahead, as the Seminoles have proven they can compete with the best of the ACC.

With both clubs motivated, which team will prevail?

Seminoles Need to Adjust Without Big Men

The identity of this Seminoles team is in need of a change after injuries to two of its more prominent players. Without Malik Osborne and Naheem McLeod, the Noles can no longer utilize their overwhelming amount of size.

Florida State will now have to play through its backcourt, which could prove effective against the Tar Heels.

The Noles' leading scorer, Caleb Mills, has had a significant leap in production since the injury bug hit the team. Over the last three games, Mills has put up 16, 15 and 19-point games.

The 19-point outing was due to a big uptick in his 3-point shot attempts. He went 4-of-8 from deep against Pitt, and will have the opportunity to show off his range again against the Tar Heels.

North Carolina has not done a great job of closing out on and contesting outside shooters. The Tar Heels are 219th in 3-point percentage allowed and are 187th in opponent effective field goal percentage.

Expect Mills and John Butler to capitalize on the Tar Heels' faults.

Tar Heels to Light Up Scoreboard?

North Carolina will have a multitude of edges on the offensive end of the floor in this matchup. The biggest will be the Heels' outside shooting, as they have multiple guys that can effectively exploit the Seminoles' defense.

The 3-ball has been detrimental to Florida State, as it's 330th in 3-point percentage allowed and gives up the 15th-highest share of points to 3-pointers.

You put those numbers up against the likes of Caleb Love, R.J. Davis and Brady Manek — who all shoot over 40% from behind the arc — and you have a recipe for points.

It does not end there, though. The Seminoles will also need to contain the big man down low, Armando Bacot. He has been a force this season, as he averages over 16 points and 12 rebounds per contest.

Here, Bacot will be facing a much more undersized Florida State frontcourt that does not have any dominant rebounders to match his play on the glass.

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Florida State vs. North Carolina Betting Pick

The Seminoles haven't made adjustments since their myriad of injuries. An inferior Pittsburgh team beat them in their last game, and this matchup against North Carolina is not the one they need right now.

The impact of the injuries is felt on both ends of the court, and the Tar Heels have the talent to take advantage in every facet.

Take the Tar Heels to roll at home.

Pick: North Carolina -8.5 or better

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Nick Sterling
Jun 22, 2024 UTC