South Dakota State vs. Boise State Odds, Picks: Why to Target Broncos
Photo by Loren Orr/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyson Degenhart (Boise State)
South Dakota State vs. Boise State Odds
In a key non-conference, mid-major matchup, the Boise State Broncos host the South Dakota State Jackrabbits, who already logged a game on Monday night, losing a tight one to Akron.
The Jackrabbits did lose Baylor Scheierman via the transfer portal. Even still, they have a strong recruit in William Kyle III on the team. He logged 30 minutes in game one with 14 points and three boards. Given their lack in size but quick pace, he will become a fixture in the rotation.
Tanner Te Slaa and Matthew Mors are both freshmen joining the roster, as well. Mors saw around 19 minutes vs. Akron, so he will be a key part of the rotation.
Otherwise, the team has some familiar faces from the 2021-2022 NCAA tournament team.
Boise has seen a little bit of roster turnover, as well. The Broncos do return Marcus Shaver Jr. and Tyson Degenhart, both of whom averaged at least 9.5 points per game.
They have question marks down low, but Sadraque Nganga — a four-star recruit — could give them a boost, along with two transfers, Chibuzo Agbo (Texas Tech) and Mohamed Sylla (Detroit). Expect these names to be in the lineup to eat some minutes with Shaver and Degenhart leading the charge.
Either way, the Broncos have more to build off of this season, and the market seems to be overrating the Jackrabbits.
South Dakota State thrives by playing an extremely fast-paced game with seldom defense.
Last season, this team shot 43.7% from beyond the arc, and this was sorely lacking in game one against Akron, as SDSU sunk only 4-of-15 from downtown. The Jackrabbits did shoot over 60% inside the arc, so this is something to keep an eye on.
Obviously with a defense ranked 244th in Efficiency, per KenPom, they will need to find areas to score if the 3-pointer is less of an option than last year.
Offensive rebounding does seem like it could still be an issue for the Jackrabbits this season — it ranked 305th in this metric last year. They only pulled down five offensive boards vs. Akron, so this might continue to be a glaring issue that feeds into problems in transition.
Kyle does look to have solid post moves for a freshman. If he is comfortable in the post, this could at least assist with those prior issues.
— Jackrabbit Basketball (@GoJacksMBB) November 8, 2022
Now, the Broncos do have a better roster going into this season. They are ranked 86th via KenPom, but defense (72nd) should give them a leg up on the Jackrabbits.
Shaver was one of these disrupters. Last season, he averaged 1.1 steals per game. Degenhart averaged 0.8, so this could provide a boost against a Jackrabbits team that looked more lackluster on the defensive end over the last year.
Now, where Shaver can prosper is in transition. He showed his abilities last season when Boise would turn the script and push the pace.
Marcus Shaver with a BEAUTIFUL pass for Boise State against UNLV 🔥 pic.twitter.com/km6qnAulYd
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthewCFB) February 12, 2022
In fact, Shaver knocked down three last second 3s in 2021-2022, so he could be a matchup nightmare for a South Dakota State team that emphasizes offense.
The other starters for Boise were Max Rice, Agbo, Degenhart and Lukas Milner. Last season, this team ranked 11th in preventing offensive rebounding, so losing Mladen Armus and Abu Kigab will hurt in the short term.
This is something that will be sorted out as the season moves on, but 3-pointers should be an offensive edge to the Broncos. Agbo nailed some 3s in their exhibition against Carroll College, while Degenhart hit 3s himself.
Given how poorly the Jackrabbits continue to defend the arc, look for Boise to capitalize.
South Dakota State vs. Boise State Betting Pick
Since South Dakota State has lost some crucial pieces to its roster, Boise State will take advantage.
SDSU was already a poor defending team, so the Broncos will push in transition when necessary with Shaver. The Broncos will also show off their shooting from deep against a team that allowed an Effective Field Goal Percentage of 51.4% last season and a 3-point percentage of 35.2%.
Since these woes came up vs. Akron, they will surely continue against the better team in the Broncos.
Take the Broncos and their well-balanced basketball team over the Jackrabbits and their offense-only approach. The market has not caught up to this one yet.