Purdue vs Indiana Odds, Predictions, Picks | Big Ten Betting Preview
Getty Images. Pictured: Purdue’s Zach Edey.
Purdue vs Indiana Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
We have a classic in-state rivalry clash on Saturday afternoon at Mackey Arena as the Indiana Hoosiers take on the Purdue Boilermakers. The Hoosiers are looking to complete a season sweep of the Boilermakers after they came out victorious, 79-74, in the first matchup.
Purdue seems to have kicked things back into gear after last Sunday’s home stomping of Ohio State. Many are wondering if Matt Painter’s squad is Final Four caliber, but they have the presumed player of the year in Zach Edey, so it’s tough to argue they aren’t.
The incredible matchup between Trayce-Jackson Davis and Edey will be must-see television, so let’s dig into this game.
Edey, rightfully so, headlines any Purdue breakdown. I could never see myself vouching for a team with inexperienced guards as a national championship contender, but Edey has proven to be a matchup nightmare on a nightly basis. He is the heart and soul of the Boilermakers and they will go deep into March if he continues to put the team on his back.
Even with some slight regression heading their way and a -12.87 record luck per ShotQuality, there is a ton to love about Purdue in this matchup.
First off, they are 13-1 at home this season, whereas the Hoosiers are 4-7 on the road.
Next, they rank inside the top 10 in offensive efficiency and in the top 20 in defensive efficiency. Their slow tempo on offense allows them to lower the in-game variance a bit, which can be crucial when facing a good 3-point shooting team like the Hoosiers.
Purdue also protects the basketball well and does a nice job at the free-throw line, ranking inside the top 55 in both categories.
It seemed like the Hoosiers were primed for another solid victory on Wednesday evening at East Lansing, but they were completely dominated from about the 12-minute mark onward in a 15-point loss. The good news for the Hoosiers heading into this matchup is that they have already defeated the Boilermakers this season, so they certainly won’t be lacking any confidence.
The Hoosiers’ success thus far this season has been not only due to Jackson-Davis but also because of their terrific numbers from beyond the arc. Even with Xavier Johnson out, they find themselves 17th in the country in 3-point percentage. That statistic alone will keep them alive in any matchup.
Freshman guard Jalen Hood-Schifino has also turned in a breakout season and has shown flashes of becoming a lottery pick in the future.
As much as I love this Indiana team, there are few things that are a bit concerning, especially heading into this matchup. For starters, the Hoosiers rank 334th in Rim-and-3 Rate. They also have a -15.53 record luck, per ShotQuality. That is a bit alarming, so I wouldn’t be shocked if we continue to see negative regression heading their way.
Indiana continues to struggle at the charity stripe and in grabbing second chances — they find themselves outside the top 200 in both those categories. That’s not a good sign when going up against the No. 1 team in rebounding percentage. It’s safe to say the Hoosiers would love to get Johnson back for March.
Purdue vs Indiana Betting Pick
I backed the Hoosiers in the prior matchup and thought I would be happy to take them again. But after going over all of the metrics, I think Purdue has a chance to roll at home.
Besides 3-point shooting, you could argue Purdue does everything better than the Hoosiers, and the statistics back that up.
In a tough environment, I have a hard time envisioning Indiana coming out with a victory and I think we will get a couple extra points of value from the market since Purdue lost the first matchup. With regression still looming for the Hoosiers, I am confident in laying the points with Purdue and wouldn’t flinch if this was a blowout.
Pick: Purdue -7 (Play to -8)
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