College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions: Miami vs. Florida State (Tuesday, Jan. 11)
Justin Casterline/Getty Images. Pictured: Anthony Polite
- The Miami Hurricanes look to stay undefeated in ACC play when it takes on a middling Florida State squad on Tuesday.
- The Hurricanes have put themselves on top of the ACC thus far with a 13-3 record, including a perfect 5-0 mark in conference play.
- Coming off a win over No. 2 Duke, Keg breaks down whether or not the Canes can keep their magical run in the ACC alive.
Miami vs. Florida State Odds
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 150 -110o / -110u | N/A |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 150 -110o / -110u | N/A |
The Miami Hurricanes may be the best team in college basketball not ranked inside the top 25. Miami has won nine games in a row, leads the ACC with a 5-0 record and just knocked off then-No. 2 Duke.
But even with all they've done and how good they've looked, the Hurricanes enter this game as a 6.5-point underdog to Florida State.
The Seminoles are 8-5 on the season and just 2-2 in conference play. They held off Louisville at home last time out, but prior to that suffered a 22-point loss on the road at Wake Forest.
Miami has been playing with a chip on its shoulder all season, and it may only have gotten bigger after being left out of the most recent top 25. The Hurricanes were picked to finish 12th in the conference during the preseason, and now, after coming out of Duke with a win, it's hard to see how this team still isn't getting any credit.
KenPom ranks the Canes the third luckiest team in the country. Will that luck finally run out against Florida State?
Miami Hurricanes: Good or Lucky?
The Hurricanes are atop the ACC and have taken down one of the strongest opponents they will face. But it's only January and they have 15 more conference games to go, so it's still a long road for the Hurricanes if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.
However, we can't discredit just how big the win over Duke was. It was the first top-five win for the Hurricanes since 2016. In the victory, Charlie Moore was a huge factor, hitting 53.8% and going off for 18 points, three rebounds and two assist.
The Hurricanes have a better record than the Seminoles, but they are clearly at a disadvantage in multiple areas — the biggest being around the basket, where they average just 31.3 rebounds per game.
And while they average more points per game than Florida State, the fact that they allow 73.8 points per contest compared to the Seminoles' 68.2 will likely be a much bigger issue.
The Hurricanes have been able to effectively move the ball around, recording 209 assists on the season, which ranks 120th in Division I. The Hurricanes are hitting 43.7% overall on the season, but have been especially good at the charity stripe, making 74.8% of their attempts.
The Miami defense may be the biggest cause for concern, currently ranked 200th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. The Canes are allowing opponents to post an effective field goal percentage of 53.9% — 312th in college basketball.
They rank outside the top-275 defensively against both 2- and 3-point shots. If Miami cant limit the Seminoles, its luck could finally run out.
Florida State Wins With Defense
The Seminoles have been led all season by Caleb Mills, but against Wake Forest, he led them straight into the ground. It was a nightmare performance for the sophomore guard, who shot just 15.4% from the floor and finished with 10 points.
However, after a slow start against Louisville, Mills turned it on and scored 23 points in the first half, the most by an individual player in a half at the Tucker Center in more than a decade.
The Seminoles have been solid on offense, but their biggest advantage has been on the defensive end. Florida State ranks 21st in the nation by forcing a turnover on 24.1% of defensive possessions.
The Seminoles are also allowing opposing teams to shoot just 33.1% from deep and 48.9% on 2-point shots. They rank 140th in points per game allowed at 68.2.
On the offensive side of the ball, Florida State is averaging 73.6 points per game and has been a force around the basket, averaging 34.8 rebounds per game. The Seminoles rank 138th in college basketball, shooting 44.3% from the field, while also recording an assist 14.1 times per game.
One major problem for the Seminoles has been fouling. Florida State is averaging 17.5 fouls per game, a number that will definitely come into play against Miami, which is forcing 16.7 fouls per contest.
Miami vs. Florida State Betting Pick
The Hurricanes have been one of the best teams in college basketball as of late, but they have also been one of the luckiest. That luck has to run out at some point.
I think that happens against Florida State, a team that can slow down Miami's high-power offense while also taking advantage of the Canes' lacking defense.
While Miami just won on the road against Duke, one of toughest road atmospheres in college basketball, things will turn out differently against its in-state conference rival.
I was able to get Florida State at -6.5 and I would take them up to -7 — but no higher.
Pick: Florida State -7 or better
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