Friday College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions: Nevada Wolfpack vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Sam Wasson/Getty Images. Pictured: Anthony Holland
- Fresno State has had Nevada's number of late, winning nine consecutive games in the series.
- Will that success continue as significant home favorites in Friday's showdown?
- Continue reading below for a full breakdown of the matchup, including a betting pick.
Nevada vs. Fresno State Odds
-110o / -110u
|Fresno State Odds|
-110o / -110u
The Nevada Wolfpack will venture out to California on Friday to take on the Fresno State Bulldogs for the second time this season. Nevada hasn’t won a game since beating the Bulldogs on January 21st, suffering losses to Colorado State, Utah State and UNLV during that span. Steve Alford’s team hopes to end its losing streak by completing the regular season sweep over Fresno on the road.
But the Wolfpack aren’t the only ones with streaks on their mind.
Fresno State has failed to beat Nevada In the last nine meetings, Head coach Justin Huston has beaten every Mountain West team so far in his four-year tenure … except Nevada.
But the winds may be shifting in Fresno State’s favor. Friday night will be the first time this game has been played in the Save-Mart Center since January 2019. The Bulldogs are also 27-22 at home against Nevada.
The Bulldogs are also fighting to stay competitive in the Mountain West. Fresno State has finished in the top four of MW standings in six consecutive seasons. Currently fifth, a win would propel the Bulldogs into at least a tie for fourth depending on how other games go Friday night.
The Wolfpack are looking to avoid their second-straight series win streak being broken. UNLV beat Nevada in their last game 69-58 to end an eight-game losing streak.
However, the Wolfpack were without their two best players, Grant Sherfield and Warren Washington, in that one. Neither have been confirmed for tonight, and without one or both Nevada would be at a serious disadvantage.
On offense, the Wolfpack are averaging 72 points per game, but have had their share of struggles when it comes to shooting. In fact, Nevada is having a historically bad year when it comes to 3-point shooting, ranking 304th at 30.4% and an even-worse 25.9% in conference games. Alford has only had one team shoot worst from deep in his 27-year coaching career.
Nevada is decent at limiting turnovers and has been a top-50 free throw shooting team, ranking 36th by hitting 76.4%.
The Wolfpack defend the three almost as bad as they shoot it, allowing teams to hit at 35.8%, which ranks 288th. Teams are racking up 75.9 points against them, which ranks in the bottom-50.
The Bulldogs’ offense has been productive enough, averaging 66.7 points per game. They rank 105th in the NCAA in 2-point shooting percentage, and have been consistent from the free throw line, hitting at 76.4%.
But as one of the slowest-paced teams in the country, (355th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom), the Bulldogs are not meant to be a high-scoring team. Their efficiency shooting and ability to limit turnovers is much more important to the offense than overall scoring.
And as a slower-paced team, the Bulldogs pride themselves on their defense, which has been a force due in large part to the efforts of Orlando Robinson. KenPom ranks Robinson third in his player of the year standings; he leads the team in points, rebounds, assist and blocks. There are few players in the country who are as important to their team as Robinson is to the Bulldogs.
Fresno State is fifth nationally in scoring defense, holding opponents to just 57.5 points per game, which is also the second-best in the Mountain West. As a team the Bulldogs are also the best in the conference when it comes to rebounding defense, holding teams to just 28.71 points per contest. Opponents have scored more than 70 just twice this season against the Bulldogs.
Nevada vs. Fresno State Betting Pick
Even if Nevada has both Sherfield & Washington — which I don’t think it will — I still don’t see it holding onto this win streak against Fresno State.
The Bulldogs have been a better team on both ends of the court. They shouldn’t have trouble scoring on the Wolfpack, and if Nevada is without its stars, its hard to see how it can have any kind of significant production against one of the best defenses in the country.
A line of 8.5 points is a decent amount, but while Fresno is the better team on the court, it’s also been the better team at the book. Fresno State is 9-1 ATS at home while Nevada is 1-6 on the road.
Lay the points with the Bulldogs.
Pick: Fresno State-9 or better
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