Nevada vs. Boise State Odds, Picks: Broncos to Prove Themselves
Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Naje Smith (Boise State)
Nevada vs. Boise State Odds
-115o / -105u
|Boise State Odds|
-115o / -105u
Nevada now sits alone atop the Mountain West, but to hold its spot, it’ll have to beat the Broncos once again.
Boise State comes into this game having not lost since Nevada pulled off that comeback win. Currently 4-1 in conference play, Boise has beaten top teams in the Mountain West such as Utah State and UNLV. Not to mention, the Broncos have beaten their four opponents by an average of 15.3 points.
Can the Broncos get their revenge at home? Or will Nevada confirm its spot as the team to beat atop the Mountain West?
The Wolf Pack have been the second-best team in the Mountain West in efficiency on both offense and defense.
Unfortunately for them, Boise State has been the best in both.
In their first meeting of the season, Nevada held Boise to just 31.2% from 3-point range, something that could once again be a huge factor in this game.
No team in the Mountain West has been better from beyond the arc in conference play than Boise State. Over their first five games, the Broncos are hitting 41.9% from 3-point range.
The Wolf Pack have held teams to an average of 35.3% since playing the Broncos, and will need to keep them at bay from the perimeter if they want to keep this game close.
Boise State likely won’t be able to take advantage of one of Nevada’s bigger weaknesses: fouling. The Broncos average just 14.8 fouls drawn per game and average just 13.4 free-throw attempts per contest.
When it comes to scoring, the Wolf Pack should have no problem driving to the basket. Boise State has allowed opposing teams to hit 66.7% of shots at the rim and 43.8% of shots in the paint over its last five games.
However, Nevada may have some challenges when it comes to pulling up.
The Wolf Pack take just as many shots from the paint as they do from the mid-range. But Boise State ranks in the 92nd percentile when it comes to limiting mid-range shooting, holding teams to just 27.6%.
For Boise State, step one against Nevada will be to take more 3-point attempts. The Broncos average 22.4 3-points attempts per game, and in their first meeting with Nevada, they had just 16.
That can’t happen if Boise State wants to split the season series.
The Broncos’ next step: be aware of their fouls and limit them as much as possible. If a single Boise State player gets into foul trouble at any point, this game becomes very different.
The Boise State bench has averaged an impressively bad 10 points per game over the last five. The Broncos haven’t been much better overall on the year, averaging just 13.7 per contest.
Defense has won Boise State a majority of its games; it’s why the Broncos are 14-4 on the season and second in the conference. If they are going to beat Nevada, they will need their defense to show up again.
The Wolf Pack have struggled with rebounding, Boise, on the other hand, ranks in the 97th percentile in defensive rebounds per game (28.6).
In their first meeting, the Broncos out-rebounded the Wolf Pack by 10. They will need to do that — or better — again this week while also avoiding another late collapse.
Nevada vs. Boise State Betting Pick
Nevada surged back late on its home floor in the first meeting, I don’t see it doing that again in Boise, though.
I think this Broncos team is good enough to win this conference, and they’ll prove it on Tuesday night.
I know it seems like a high spread, especially with how good both of these teams have been both straight up and against the spread. But I think this is a revenge spot for a Boise State team that has taken it to another level in conference play since losing its opening game against Nevada.
Back the Broncos as high as a six-point favorite.
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