Oregon State vs. Oregon College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Value on In-State Over/Under in Eugene (Saturday, January 29)

Oregon State vs. Oregon College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Value on In-State Over/Under in Eugene (Saturday, January 29) article feature image

Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: N’Faly Dante (1) and Will Richardson (0).

  • The Oregon Ducks and Oregon State Beavers hit the hardwood for an in-state rivalry matchup on Saturday night.
  • These two teams met on Jan. 10, as the Ducks picked up a two-point win in Corvallis.
  • Keg breaks down how the matchup in Eugene will shake out and shares his top betting pick below.

Oregon State vs. Oregon Odds

Saturday, Jan. 29
10 p.m. ET
Oregon State Odds
-110o / -110u
Oregon Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

The Oregon State Beavers will hit the road again looking not only for their second Pac-12 win of the season, but to end a four-game losing streak. However, that road leads them right back to the team that started the losing streak: the Oregon Ducks.

The Ducks are looking to bounce back as well after their six-game win streak was brought to an abrupt end by Colorado at home, 82-78.

In their first meeting this season, Oregon held on just enough to come out of Corvallis with a 78-76 win.

Oregon State's most recent loss was an especially defeating one. The Beavers went to halftime with a two-point lead, shooting 51.6% from the floor. But in the second half, they fell apart, shooting just 39.3% and going 0-for-9 from beyond the arc.

Oregon suffered a similar fate hitting 7-of-20 from three-point range in the loss to Colorado. But that seems much worse for Oregon when you look at how it's shot on the season overall. Oregon State is 275th in 3-point percentage, but the Ducks are 49th in the country from beyond the arc at 36.5%.

With both teams looking to get back on track, Oregon wants to stay in contention for a top-three spot in the Pac-12 while the Beavers are just trying to stay out of last place.

Who can come out on top here? And more importantly, is 12.5 points too big of a spread for the Ducks against their in-state rival?

Oregon State Beavers

The Beavers offense ranks 193rd nationally and seventh in the Pac-12, averaging 69.3 points per game. But they have been effective at shooting the ball, posting the exact same effective field goal percentage the Oregon defense allows at 50.4%.

OSU relies heavily on points around the basket, ranking ninth in the nation with 60.6% of its points coming from 2-point shots. The Ducks, in comparison, have struggled to defend 2-point shooting, ranking 248th in the country in 2-point defense.

The Beavers do struggle on the boards, pulling down just 31,.7 rebounds per game as one of the bottom-50 teams in college basketball at rebounding. They rank 317th nationally.

Jarod Lucas leads the Beavers with 13.9 points per game while also shooting 43.3% from the floor. Warith Alatishe is second on the team in scoring at 11.4 points per contest while also leading the team with 6.6 rebounds per game.

On defense, Oregon State is even worse, ranking 279th in scoring defense and allowing opponents to record 74.3 points per game. The rankings are similar when it comes to effective field goal percentage and shooting percentage, where they find themselves 279th and 277th, respectfully.

But its worst numbers defensively come against 2-point shooting, where they are 322nd, allowing teams to hit 54.2% from inside the arc.

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Oregon Ducks

On offense, Oregon is averaging 73.7 points per game, which ranks 31st in the nation. The Ducks are a good shooting team, ranking 33rd nationally in shooting percentage.

This has been in large part due to Will Richardson, who leads the Ducks with 14.9 points per contest. Richardson is shooting 49.3% from the floor and 45.6% from 3-point range, both of which are numbers that rank inside the top 10 in the Pac-12.

Defensively, the Ducks haven't been awful, but there's nothing particularly worth writing home about. They're 201st in effective field goal percentage and have mainly had trouble when it comes to defending shots around the basket.

They aren't as bad as the Beavers, but Oregon still ranks 248th in 2-point shot defense.

Oregon State vs. Oregon Betting Pick

Oregon should make quick work of the Beavers defense, but how effective can the Oregon State offense be?

Both of these teams have been awful at the free-throw line, so it likely won't have much of an advantage in that area. Oregon ranks 315th in the country hitting at just 66.4%, while Oregon State has made only 68.3% of attempts.

The spread on this game opened right at the number I made it: 12.5. And because of that, I'm looking to the total instead.

Both teams have been over machines recently. Nine of the Beavers' last 10 have gone over, while eight of Oregon's last 10 have surpassed the number as well.

Regression comes for us all, and that's exactly what I think happens here with two teams that rank outside the top 200 in pace of play and struggle at the line.

I got the under at 144.5 and would take it as low as 142

Pick: Under 142 or better

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Nick Sterling
May 29, 2024 UTC