College Basketball Odds, Pick, Prediction: Pittsburgh vs. Florida State (Wednesday, February 9)
Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Wyatt Wilkes (FSU)
- Pittsburgh is searching for its first road win in ACC play this season as it travels to Florida State to take on the Noles.
- The Seminoles have fallen off after beating Duke and Miami (FL) twice.
- Keg breaks down why the value lies in the home team.
Pitt vs. Florida State Odds
-110o / -110u
|Florida State Odds|
-110o / -110u
The Panthers hit the road searching to end their four-game losing streak and hoping to win their first away game of the conference season. Pittsburgh’s last away win came on Dec. 18 against St. John’s.
The Panthers currently rank last in the ACC at just 8-16 overall on the season and 3-10 in conference play.
After a hot start in the ACC, Florida State has taken a fall from grace itself. The Seminoles started league play with an impressive 6-2 record, earning wins over some of the best teams in the ACC, such as Duke, Syracuse and even Miami (FL) twice.
However, they have lost their last four games in a row. Now, the Noles will look to get back on track against the worst team in the conference before they take on North Carolina this weekend.
The Panthers do lead the all-time series 8-5, and are even 2-3 on the road against the Seminoles. But with how much they’ve struggled this season, can they even keep up with Florida State?
I also want to mention that Florida State will be wearing one of the coolest uniforms in college basketball Wednesday night, as they sport their special turquoise Nike N7 uniforms.
The uniforms are meant to raise awareness for bringing sport to Native American and Aboriginal youth. It’s the 19th time the Seminoles have worn the turquoise, and they are 16-3 in those games.
Pittsburgh has lost 12 ACC road games in a row, with its last win coming against Syracuse in January of 2021. The Panthers have struggled for quite some time, and it hasn’t been any better this season.
The Panthers are last in the ACC in scoring, averaging just 61.8 points per game. They also rank outside the top 200 in effective field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, 2-point percentage and free-throw shooting.
Pittsburgh is one of the worst teams in the country when it comes to turning the ball over, as it currently ranks 321st in turnover percentage.
Head coach Jeff Capel III’s team also moves at one of the slowest paces in college basketball, ranking 326th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. Their pace doesn’t do that struggling offense any favors, as they rank outside the top 300 in field goal and 3-point attempts.
On defense, Pitt hasn’t been as bad, ranking sixth in the ACC by allowing 67 points per game. But I don’t think the Panthers have been efficient enough to slow down Florida State.
The Panthers are allowing teams to post an effective field goal percentage of 51%. They may have some advantage when it comes to stopping Florida State on 2-point attempts — as it limits teams to 48.8% — but again, I don’t think it will be enough.
Florida State owns the eighth-highest scoring offense in the ACC, averaging 72.1 points per game. The Noles are led by Caleb Mills — who is averaging 13 points per game — and two other talents in Matthew Cleveland and Malik Osborne — who both average double digits in scoring.
The Seminoles also post the third-best turnover margin in the conference at 2.86. However, Florida State has been just an average team when it comes to shooting. It ranks 178th in 3-point percentage nationally, and just 155th in 2-point percentage.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been aggressive when it comes to blocking shots, but the Seminoles have been able to avoid getting stopped at the rim. The Noles currently rank 31st in Division I, as they only get blocked on 6.8% of offensive plays.
The Florida State defense is just 10th when it comes to scoring in the ACC, allowing opponents to put up 69.8 points per game. However, they have been the best at forcing turnovers, specifically notching steals.
The Seminoles lead the ACC, averaging 9.5 steals per game, which also ranks 10th in Division I. Pitt has had some issues when it comes to ball security, ranking 226th in college basketball by giving up 13 turnovers per game.
I believe this is an area in which Florida State can exploit.
Pitt vs. Florida State Betting Pick
I think Florida State gets back on track here against the Panthers. Pittsburgh just doesn’t have the talent to keep up with the Noles on either end of the court.
Florida State has been considerably better at home this season, too, posting a scoring margin of +7.1 compared to +2.3 overall.
I have the Seminoles at -10.5, and would back them as high as a 12-point favorite in a game in which I think they bounce back in a huge way.