College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions: Saint Louis vs. Dayton (Tuesday, Jan. 11)
Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Terrence Hargrove Jr.
- At 10-4 (1-0 in A-10), Saint Louis has a date with Dayton (9-6, 1-1).
- The Billikens are coming off of two solid wins over Richmond and Iona, but is there value on them as underdogs from a betting perspective.
- DJ James explains why the answer is "yes" below.
Saint Louis vs. Dayton Odds
|Saint Louis Odds|
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
The Saint Louis Billikens will hit the road for Dayton, Ohio to take on the Dayton Flyers in a marquee Atlantic 10 matchup.
Dayton has a couple of distinguished wins under its belt, in particular, one over the Kansas Jayhawks.
Saint Louis recently beat both Richmond and Iona on its home floor, but it will have to prove itself on the road against a conference rival in this game.
Marten Linssen is listed as questionable for SLU, so if he plays, he provides a jolt to the offense. The Billikens were able to win their last two without him, though, so they should be able to do the same here.
Saint Louis may not necessarily be the strongest defensive team, but it matches up well with the Flyers. Dayton turns the ball over at a 22.4% clip, ranking 330th in the NCAA. SLU turns opponents over at a 20% mark, so this could cause issues for the Flyers, even if they are playing at home.
Yuri Collins is a perfect matchup for Malachi Smith, who is averaging just over two turnovers per game.
In addition, Francis Okoro is averaging almost one steal and 1.6 blocks per outing, which could cause plenty of issues for Toumani Camara, who turns the ball over 3.4 times each game.
Okoro is an elite offensive rebounder. In fact, he ranks 16th in offensive rebounding percentage, per KenPom, which has propelled the Billikens into the top 15 in offensive rebounding percentage as a team.
Dayton typically crashes the glass pretty well on defense, but given SLU’s offensive capabilities on the glass, the Billikens will negate a usual advantage for the Flyers.
Jordan Nesbitt is another offensive rebounding threat on the wing who can bolster SLU’s numbers.
Now, SLU may not shoot many 3s as a team, but when it does, it is very efficient at a 35.7% mark. Gibson Jimerson, Nesbitt and Terrence Hargrove Jr. are the Billikens’ usual suspects from deep. Jimerson and Nesbitt both shoot over 34%.
Dayton allows 32.7% of opponents’ 3s to fall, so this could be an edge if Saint Louis takes advantage.
The Flyers are a methodically-paced basketball team. They rank 320th in Adjusted Tempo, per KenPom, but controlling the pace could be eliminated if they are playing a team as quick as the Billikens.
Surely, this will at least let the Flyers limit their own turnovers if they can control the clock, though.
Dayton loves to get the ball inside. With a lack of depth off of the bench in the post for Saint Louis — especially if Linssen is missing — the Flyers can take advantage. Dayton ranks 13th in the NCAA in 2-point percentage at 57.2%, and it does not shoot much from outside the arc.
If the ball is not in Smith’s hands, expect it to go inside to Camara or DaRon Holmes II.
This may be hazardous, as mentioned above, because of Dayton’s lack of concentration. With the right defensive artillery, SLU could cause a litany of issues for the Flyers, which leaves Dayton no alternative outside the arc.
Building off of that, Dayton only shoots 32.4% from deep as a team. Koby Brea, Mustapha Amzil, Elijah Weaver and R.J. Blakney hoist the majority of outside shots for the Flyers.
Weaver and Blakney are the most efficient, and they log the most minutes, but SLU defends the arc well, only allowing a 30.3% 3-point percentage for the opposition.
Saint Louis vs. Dayton Betting Pick
Linssen playing would be an auto-bet for the SLU Billikens. Even with him off of the floor, Saint Louis has the wherewithal to defeat the Flyers in Dayton.
The Billikens shoot better from outside, take care of the ball and crash the glass better on offense. Okoro and Collins are crucial to the Billikens’ success in this matchup. If they can limit fouls, they should lead SLU to a win here.
Take the Billikens at +3 and play it to +1.5.
Pick: Saint Louis +3 (Play to +1.5)
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