Stanford vs. UCLA College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Bruins To Cover Double-Digit Spread (Saturday, January 29)
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyger Campbell.
- Mick Cronin's UCLA Bruins welcome Jerod Haase's Stanford Cardinal to Westwood for a Pac-12 After Dark matchup on Saturday night.
- UCLA is riding high after dominating a top-five opponent in Arizona earlier this week.
- Alex Hinton breaks down this game and shares his top betting pick below.
Stanford vs. UCLA Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
UCLA looks to build on a strong two-week stretch as it hosts Stanford. The Bruins have won five in a row, including consecutive blowout wins over No. 3 Arizona and California on Tuesday and Thursday of this week, to reach a record of 15-2 overall.
Meanwhile for Stanford, the last few weeks have been a roller coaster. It has a loss to conference cellar-dweller Washington and was also blown out by Arizona. It has two wins over USC, including a 64-61 victory on Thursday. Stanford is 12-6 and 5-3 in the Pac-12. It now has four Quad 1 wins, but it is just 86th in the NET rankings. Stanford may not fare as well against the other Pac-12 team in Los Angeles.
Stanford has quality depth on the wing in forwards Harrison Ingram, Jaiden Delaire, Spencer Jones and Brandon Angel, who are all between six-foot-seven and six-foot-nine. Ingram leads the team with 11.6 points and 6.9 rebounds per game, while Delaire is averaging 11.2 points and 4.4 rebounds.
Jones is averaging 10 points and 4.3 rebounds, while Angel contributes 8.5 points off the bench. Jones converts 63% of his two-point attempts, and Angel converts 57% of his. Michael O’Connell runs the point and averages 3.9 assists.
Watching Stanford is not always pretty. On the offensive end, it ranks 92nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 222nd in offensive rating. It is a high turnover team, averaging 15.6, the 12th most in the country. The Cardinal do a good job of getting to the free-throw line, averaging 20 attempts per game. However, it converts just 66% of them, which ranks 317th nationally.
Defensively, Stanford ranks 72nd in adjusted defensive efficiency and 242nd in defensive rating. It struggles defending on the interior, ranking 332 in two point percentage and 255th in blocks. However, the Cardinal is +7.9 in rebounding margin.
Against Cal, UCLA was without leading scorer Johnny Juzang because of health and safety protocols. He was not needed as forward Jaime Jaquez led the way with 15 points and five rebounds, while freshman Peyton Watson contributed 12 points and six rebounds off the bench. Juzang is a big loss as he efficiently averages 18.1 points on 45/39/84 shooting splits.
However, the Bruins have the firepower to survive without him.
Guard Jules Bernard is averaging 13.1 points and 4.9 rebounds while Jaquez averages 12.9 points and 5.6 rebounds. Point guard Tyger Campbell is averaging 11.1 and 4.2 assists against just one turnover per. He also is a 43% three-point shooter. The Bruins are the top three-point shooting team in the Pac-12 at 37.1%.
It is hard to be more balanced on both ends than UCLA as it ranks 15th in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. UCLA is second in the Pac-12 in scoring defense in conference play at 62.1 points per game. It stifled Arizona and held one of the top scoring teams in the nation to 59 points on 30.7% from the field.
Stanford vs. UCLA Betting Pick
Against the spread, Stanford and UCLA are about even. Stanford is 9-9 ATS while UCLA is 8-9. However, in the last five games, Stanford is 2-3 ATS while UCLA is 3-1-1. Stanford took advantage of a USC team currently in freefall but was ran off the floor by Arizona.
While UCLA will be more methodical than Arizona, it is more than capable of blowing out the Cardinal as well. Between Bernard, Jaquez and forward Cody Riley, UCLA will expose Stanford’s interior defense. Jaquez and Riley in particular are shooting 59 and 60%, respectively, from inside the arc in conference play.
With Campbell running the show, UCLA will likely win the turnover battle. UCLA is second in the Pac-12 in assist-to-turnover ratio. It is also second in the conference in steals during conference games. The Bruins will turn over Stanford and fuel easy buckets in transition. Stanford, who is in 238th in scoring offense, will struggle to score against the Bruins’ stingy defense and keep up.
UCLA is 9-1 at Pauley Pavilion this season and is winning by an average margin of 20.8 points per game. UCLA just covered as -13.5-point favorites against Cal, and I like it in a similar spot here.