TCU vs Oklahoma Odds, Picks & Prediction: Big 12 Betting Preview

TCU vs Oklahoma Odds, Picks & Prediction: Big 12 Betting Preview article feature image

Pictured: Mike Miles Jr. #1 of the TCU Horned Frogs. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)

TCU vs Oklahoma Odds

Saturday, March 4
3 p.m. ET
TCU Odds
-110o / -110u
Oklahoma Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

TCU is coming off a 75-73 win over Texas that was a significant win for TCU, but a painful loss for TCU (-3.5) backers.

With the win, TCU improved to 20-10 and secured its fifth 20-win season in the past seven years. The Horned Frogs are 9-8 in Big-12 play and can secure a winning conference record for the first time since 2001. To do so, they have to knock off Oklahoma in Norman.

Oklahoma lost to Kansas State 85-69 on Wednesday. It was the team's seventh loss in its past nine games, six of which have been by double digits.

Oklahoma has dominated this series all-time (27-7), but TCU has won the past three meetings, including a 79-52 game in Fort Worth earlier this season.

TCU Horned Frogs

TCU hit a rough patch after it lost star guard Mike Miles Jr. to a midseason knee injury. It went 1-5 with Miles Jr. out of the lineup and averaged 68.5 points per game. However, the Horned Frogs are 3-1 since his return. They are averaging 79 points per game with Miles back, a bit above their season average of 76 PPG.

Miles Jr. is averaging 17.2 points per game this season and excels at getting downhill and finishing in traffic. Despite being 6-foot-1, he is shooting 57.8% on 2-point attempts. Forward Emanuel Miller and guard Damion Baugh join Miles Jr. as double-digit scorers, each averaging 13 points per game.

Miller leads the team with 6.4 rebounds per game and leads the Big 12 in field-goal percentage (54.2%). Baugh ranks third in the Big 12 with 6.1 assists per game. TCU ranks 15th nationally in assists.

What makes TCU is dangerous is the multiple ways it can get create extra possessions. TCU ranks third in the conference with 11.4 offensive rebounds per game and had 14 offensive rebounds in the first meeting against Oklahoma. Center Eddie Lampkin averages 2.8 offensive rebounds per game, which leads the conference.

In that first meeting, TCU committed just eight turnovers, but forced 15. TCU forces 15.7 turnovers per game on average, which ranks third in the conference. Over half (8.4) come via steals and TCU ranks 37th nationally. Baugh ranks fifth in the Big 12 with 1.9 steals per game.

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Oklahoma Sooners

The 10-team Big 12 has a chance to send nine teams to the NCAA Tournament. Despite ranking in the top 70 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, Oklahoma will likely be the one team in the league left out — barring a run in the conference tournament.

Oklahoma has had its share of close calls, losing five conference games by four points or less. However, of its past eight conference losses, seven have come by double digits. That includes the loss to TCU.

In that game, the Sooners shot 31% from the field and had nearly as many turnovers (15) as field goals (20). It did not help matters that the Sooners got an uncharacteristic performance from guard Grant Sherfield, who went 2-for-11 from the field and finished with five points. Sherfield averages 16 points and 3.3 assists, leading the team in both categories.

Sherfield will be one of the Senior Day honorees, along with Tanner Groves, Jacob Groves and Jalen Hill.

However, the story from Wednesday's game was the emergence of freshmen Milos Uzan and Otega Oweh. They combined for 38 of the team's 69 points. Uzan has scored in double figures in five of his past eight games. As former top-100 recruits, their emergence will be key for the Sooners moving forward.

However, Oklahoma allowed Kansas State to shoot 53% and score 85 points. Oklahoma ranks 142nd in 2-point percentage defense. It is also 303rd in rebounds per game. The Sooners could struggle on the interior against TCU.

TCU vs Oklahoma Betting Pick

Oklahoma can be a tough out at home, where it has a win over Alabama and nearly upset Baylor and Texas. I expect Oklahoma to play inspired on Senior Day against a team it was blown out against earlier this season. With that said, I like TCU in this matchup.

Oklahoma ranks in the 300s in turnovers on both ends of the floor and is nearly -3 in turnover margin per game. TCU should also win the rebounding battle and get more field goal attempts in this game.

I anticipate a closer game this time, but in a close game, I trust Miles Jr. to be the difference and lead his team to victory.

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Doug Ziefel
Jun 21, 2024 UTC