Friday College Basketball Odds, Pick, Prediction: VCU Rams vs. St. Bonaventure Bonnies Betting Preview
Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Lofton.
- The St. Bonaventure Bonnies take on the VCU Rams in Friday night A-10 action.
- The Bonnies have dropped two of their last three, but that shouldn't matter when it comes to betting value in this one.
- DJ James breaks down the game and shares his top betting pick below.
VCU vs. St. Bonaventure Odds
-110o / -110u
|St. Bonaventure Odds|
-110o / -110u
The VCU Rams look to build on a seven-game win streak on the road against the St. Bonaventure Bonnies.
St. Bonaventure has looked a bit sluggish of late, dropping two of its last three. However, with a home game, it finds itself listed as slight favorites.
This is not the edge to review, though.
The Bonnies sit 279th adjusted tempo nationally per KenPom, and being at home, they should be able to contain the Ram attack.
VCU has a wide discrepancy when it comes to offensive versus defensive success. It has the third-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency and the 259th-rated offense, per KenPom.
It shoots only 32.1% from deep and 49% inside the arc. In addition, it has a litany of issues maintaining control of the ball, turning it over at a 22.6% clip. All of these are a concoction for a disaster heading on the road in a conference game, even if the Bonnies don’t tout the best defensive metrics.
On the defensive end, VCU is as tenacious as they come. The Rams hold opponents to under 25% from downtown and 43.6% from 2-point range. They also force turnovers consistently.
That said, even if the Bonnies take care of the ball (16.4% TO percentage), they might cough it up enough to offset some offensive success.
Adrian Baldwin, Jr. and Jayden Nunn match up very well with both Jaren Holmes and Kyle Lofton. This would essentially eliminate the two most significant threats for the Bonnies.
Osun Osunniyi is the Bonnies’ lone effective option down low. Either Vince Williams Jr. or Hason Ward would be able to contain him as well. This removes multiple scoring options for St. Bonaventure.
The Bonnies are far better on offense than defense, but they will dictate the pace of this matchup. They average 17.7 seconds per possession on offense and 17.9 seconds per possession on defense. Couple this with an average of 18.4 seconds when VCU’s on the defensive side, and the result is a slow-paced affair.
St. Bonaventure’s best defensive attribute is not fouling its opponents.
Although VCU doesn’t necessarily thrive at getting to the free-throw line, it’s far better in that regard than other offensive numbers. In addition, it shoots only 64.7% from the line, so this should eliminate a backdoor cover on free throws if it’s leading by the end of this game.
Osunniyi will be a key factor in this game. He averages over three blocks per game, and the Bonnies will need those swats to excel in guarding both Williams and Ward.
VCU could go with double posts, which could give it an advantage inside, but Osunniyi should be able to take one of these players out of the scoring picture.
Levi Stockard III is currently questionable for the Rams, so this is a critical edge if he cannot play. He provides the Rams with more depth down low, where the Bonnies are lacking.
Finally, VCU will forces other teams to shoot 3s. Seeing how well the Rams defend outside shots, they play into this strength.
Holmes, Jalen Adaway, Dominick Welch are the only shooters for the Bonnies, so it should be easy for the Rams to mitigate the outside attack anyways.
VCU vs. St. Bonaventure Betting Pick
This should be a defensive battle.
VCU has all of the options to limit St. Bonaventure’s strengths and force it to take outside shots. Mike Rhoades’ team defends well and forces turnovers, so the Bonnies will have their collective hands full.
St. Bonaventure has enough down low in Osunniyi to guard the inside VCU attack, so as long as he can remain out of foul trouble, this game should go under.
Take the under at 130.5, and play to 128.5.