College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions: Three Man Weave’s Wednesday Best Bets (January 19)
Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images. Pictured: Kehei Clark.
- Tuesday's college basketball slate was great, and the action doesn't slow down on Wednesday.
- Ky McKeon of Three Man Weave is here to break down his three best bets of the slate, including Iowa vs. Rutgers and Virginia vs. Pitt.
- Check out all three of McKeon's top bets below.
Coming off of a fantastic college basketball Tuesday, it would make sense if Wednesday’s slate was less-than-good, right? Well, that’s not the case.
From mid-majors to Power Five battles, Wednesday’s schedule features a number of intriguing games from a fan and betting perspective. Luckily for us, Ky McKeon of Three Man Weave is here to walk us through the games with the most betting value.
It doesn’t matter if it’s Rider vs. Quinnipiac or Iowa vs. Rutgers. A win is a win and a green dot is a green dot all the way around.
Be sure to check out all three of McKeon’s best bets for Wednesday’s college hoops slate below.
Three Man Weave’s Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Rider vs. Quinnipiac
By Ky McKeon
There’s an old well-known pattern — and don’t bother looking this up; it’s purely anecdotal — that in a rematch of a game in which the road team emerged victorious, the road team in the second matchup will also emerge victorious.
Such is the case tonight with Rider and Quinnipiac.
The Bobcats took down the Broncs a mere five days ago on the road, beating Rider in overtime after a furious comeback. Rider controlled most of the game, jumping out to a 12-0 margin and leading Quinnipiac by eight points with just under six minutes to play. It’s revenge time for Rider.
Quinnipiac won the last matchup by seven, but that is not even close to indicative of how that game played out. Rider was the better squad for 39 minutes, and it’ll be out for blood in this matchup.
To make the spot even juicier for the Broncs, they come into this game 1-4 in MAAC play, desperate for another win. Quinnipiac sits fat and happy at 4-3, winners of two straight.
Rider’s concern in this game is its interior. Kevin Marfo, Quinnipiac’s center, is one of the best big men in the MAAC and is back after having a cup of coffee with Texas A&M last season. Rider forward Ajiri Ogemuno-Johnson held his own in the first matchup, but Marfo still profoundly impacted the game.
The Broncs’ counterpunch is their top-end talent. Point guard Dwight Murray and wing Dimencio Vaughn (also had a cup of coffee in the SEC) will arguably be the two best players on the floor tonight. Murray had an uncharacteristically awful game in the first matchup, managing just three points on 1-of-8 shooting. Vaughn notched a double-double, ho hum.
Both stars should come out hungry and lay the smackdown on Marfo and Company.
The MAAC is pure chaos and rife with underdog moneyline winners. Don’t be shocked if Rider wins this game outright, but take the generous point spread just in case.
Pick: Rider +6 (Play to +5)
Iowa vs. Rutgers
By Ky McKeon
Pay heed all that enter the RAC… you shall not make it out alive.
Rutgers has been immense on its home floor this season, racking up a 9-1 record at Jersey Mike’s Arena (we’re just going to call it the “RAC”). As a home underdog, the Scarlet Knights are 2-0 straight up and against the spread, taking down Michigan and Purdue outright. Rutgers is 4-1 ATS over its last five home games.
Iowa on the road has been less intimidating. The Hawkeyes are 3-2 ATS on the road but carry a negative cover margin of -3.3 points per contest. Recently, Iowa managed to extend and cover in the final minute on the road against a severely short-handed Minnesota squad. Not too impressive.
Offensively, Rutgers is never great, but it does have one of the best scorers in the conference in Ron Harper Jr.
Iowa’s defense is worse on a relative basis than Rutgers’ offense, as such Harper and cohort Geo Baker should have no issue getting into the teeth of the Hawkeye defense and scoring or kicking out to open shooters. In Big Ten play, Rutgers is shooting 44.2% from downtown. This might be due for some regression, but the Knights have been getting great shots thanks to the creation of Baker and Harper.
Iowa’s offense ranks third in the country from an adjusted efficiency standpoint, per KenPom. Rutgers is notorious for playing tough, bulldog-esque defense. The Knights have length all over the perimeter to contest outside shots. They have a couple sizable, versatile options to throw at All-American Keegan Murray. And they have a big man in Cliff Omoruyi who should be able to stand up to the likes of Filip Rebraca on the glass.
This is primarily a venue play. Rutgers is good at home. Iowa is not as good on the road.
But you’re also backing a coach in Steve Pikiell who is one of the very best in the league and who should have a rock-solid game plan. There are worse things to do with your money tonight.
Pick: Rutgers +3.5 (Play to +3)
Virginia vs. Pitt
By Ky McKeon
Pitt has been better than its record and analytical rankings indicate. The Panthers have lost four games this year by three points or less, including a Dec. 3 matchup at Virginia, a game in which the Hoos squeaked by in a gross 53-possession affair.
But this line is still disrespectful to UVA. Despite its own struggles, Virginia sits in the top half of the ACC for the umpteenth year thanks to the masterful Tony Bennett.
Tonight, Bennett is a short favorite on the road against Jeff Capel. A coaching battle between Bennett and Capel is like an arm-wrestling match between Superman and Lois Lane. Capel has never beaten Bennett.
UVA is due for some positive regression. It ranks 13th in the ACC in 3P% (30.4%) and 15th in 3P% allowed (39.6%). In Game 1 of this matchup, UVA shot just 4-of-21 from outside the arc, while Pitt shot a blistering 8-of-16.
On the flip side, Pitt shot just 10-of-30 inside the arc, while UVA shot 20-of-31. The latter split is way more indicative of the true abilities of these teams and far more repeatable.
Pitt wants to play through John Hugley on the block. The trouble is UVA’s pack-line defense is built to stop post play. Hugley might catch the ball in the middle of the floor, but the Hoos will send doubles and their guards will dig, dig, dig at Hugley, making his night a nightmare.
In the first matchup, Hugley scored 12 points on just 2-of-11 shooting.
Look for Jayden Gardner and Kadin Shedrick to attack Hugley on the other end of the floor. UVA drew four fouls on Hugley in the first matchup and will likely try to do the same thing tonight.
Pitt falls apart without Hugley on the floor. Per Hoop Lens, the Panthers score 0.97 PPP and allow 0.91 PPP when he plays and score 0.83 PPP and allow 1.11 PPP when he sits. If Hugley gets in foul trouble, it’s game over.
UVA should improve its ACC road record to 3-1 tonight as it exerts its dominance over a bottom-tier conference foe.