Boise State vs Utah State Odds, Pick for Saturday

Below, we have Boise State vs. Utah State odds and a pick for Saturday.

The regression monster finally came for Utah State, as the formerly 7-1 Mountain West-leading Aggies have lost two straight by double-digits, most recently dropping a home game to Nevada on Tuesday.

Boise State is hanging tough in the Mountain West at 6-3, and the Broncos are still firmly in the Field of 68, currently projected as an eight-seed by Bracket Matrix.

I’m torn on this Saturday matchup, as I’m unsure if the Aggies are due for further regression or a big-time bounce-back win. It’s also worth mentioning the Broncos are in a similar bounce-back spot off a road loss to Colorado State at Fort Collins altitude (5,000 feet).

But the Broncos are about to play a second consecutive conference road game at high elevation, as Logan, Utah, sits 4,800 feet up in the sky.

That, plus a poor schematic matchup, should lead to a decisive Aggie victory.

Leon Rice-led teams are versatile.

He runs a switch-everything defensive coverage with four players standing between 6-foot-5 and 6-foot-8. The scheme can really mess with ball-screen and motion-based offenses.

Behind this switchability, the Broncos rank third in the Mountain West in conference-play defensive efficiency and tops in defensive rebounding rate. Despite its relatively smaller frontcourt, Boise crashes the boards well, with O’Mar Stanley’s 6.5 per game leading.

On offense, Boise leverages its versatile positional size to post up from anywhere on the floor, running the 21st-most post-up sets per game nationally (9.7). Stanley, Cam Martin and Tyson Degenhart have been particularly productive on those plays.

When the Broncos aren’t scoring on the interior, they’re running secondary actions on the perimeter to pop open Max Rice from deep. Rice is the definition of a hot-hand shooter, and he’s drained 13 of his past 25 attempts (52%), so keep an eye on him coming off stagger and other such off-ball screens.

When Rice is in the zone, the basket looks 12 feet wide.

Additionally, Boise (again) leverages its positional size to crash the offensive glass ferociously, leading the Mountain West in offensive rebounding rate while scoring 12 second-chance points per game (81st percentile). Again, Stanley’s 2.6 offensive rebounds per game lead that charge.

However, I worry about Boise because the Broncos have been getting lucky defensively. Conference opponents are shooting only 28% from 3, and ShotQuality projects that number should be closer to 34% based on the “quality” of attempts allowed.

If more shots fall against them, the Broncos’ defensive metrics could fall off a cliff.

And while they’ll consistently score because of second-chance opportunities, Boise hasn’t been too efficient on first shots (51.3 eFG% during conference play, 10th in MWC). I don’t always love backing teams heavily reliant on playing volleyball with the offensive glass.

And we might get a down game from Boise’s offensive rebounding unit, given Utah State is the Mountain West’s second-best defensive rebounding team behind Great Osobor.

Of course, Boise snagged 14 offensive rebounds in the last matchup between these two, but the Broncos still lost in overtime.

Why is that?

Because Danny Sprinkle has built one of the best interior cut-and-post offenses in the mid-majors behind Osobor.

The Aggies score almost 20 points per game from cutters and posters, with Osobor doing plenty of the work, dropping in 19 per game and 13 paint points per game on 60% shooting from the interior.

The Aggies are shooting a league-best 57% from 2-point range in conference play, a staggeringly high mark.

In the prior matchup, the Aggies scored 17 points on 15 cutting sets (1.13 PPP) and nine on 12 post-up sets.

The Aggies also scored 18 points on 15 transition sets (1.2 PPP), which could be a problem for the Broncos again in the rematch. Utah State gets out in transition at an above-average rate, while Boise allows over 10 fast-break points per game (30th percentile) at 1.15 PPP (sixth percentile).

I worry about Utah State’s interior defense against Boise, as the Aggies’ are a mediocre post-up defense (.92 PPP allowed, 24th percentile), and the Broncos shredded them for 23 points on 20 post-up sets (1.15 PPP). Stanley, Degenhart, Rice and Chibuzo Agbo had a field day, combining for 73 points.

That said, the Broncos still lost despite out-shooting the Aggies 9-for-28 (32%) to 6-for-23 (26%) from 3. And things will only get harder on the road.

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This bears repeating: in the prior meeting, Utah State shot 6-for-23 from 3 (26%), Boise State shot 9-for-28 (32%), and the Aggies still won.

In fact, everything went right for Boise in the first meeting. The Broncos grabbed offensive rebounds and scored second-chance points. They dominated in post-up sets. They mostly contained Osobor, holding him to 3-for-5 shooting and seven turnovers.

And they still lost.

In the next meeting, Boise gets a fired-up Utah State squad in a bounce-back spot after two consecutive losses at home.

And I worry about Boise’s legs on a two-game road trip at altitude. The Broncos rank 307th nationally in bench minutes, as they run a relatively short rotation.

From a general regression perspective, both teams are due for negative 3-point shooting regression. But Utah State hasn’t made a shot all year – the Aggies are shooting 31% from 3, but ShotQuality projects that number should be closer to 34% based on the “quality” of attempts – and that’s bound to change.

Hopefully, it changes against a Boise defense that ranks 289th in High Quality 3s allowed, per ShotQuality.

But aside from the situational and regression perspective, I’m betting the Aggies cut-and-post their way to a big win over an exploitable interior defense.

The ShotQualityBets model projects Utah State as a 10-point home favorite over Boise. I can't believe the market opened USU -3.5, which is far too cheap.

I agree. I’m betting Utah State rolls to a double-digit win behind the favorable situational spot, looming regression, and schematic matchup.

Pick: Utah State -3 (Play to -5)

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