Mid-Major conference tournaments are in full swing. Good thing we have Kyle Hunter and our Bet Labs systems to break down those betting angles.
Additionally, Tanner McGrath and Stuckey show some value on a home underdog in Big Ten play.
Read on for all of our college basketball picks and NCAAB best bets for Thursday, March 5.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6 PM | |
  | 8 PM | |
  | 8:30 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sacred Heart vs. Iona Pick
By Evan Abrams
Dan Geriot was hired at Iona this past offseason after logging time as an assistant coach in the NBA with the New Orleans Pelicans.
Well, the Gaels have had a solid first season with him at the helm, as they have an 18-13 overall record with an average 10-10 mark in the league.
In their lone meeting with Sacred Heart, the Gaels pummeled the Pioneers, 81-69, on the road.
Now both teams head to a neutral site in Atlantic City, and our very own Evan Abrams says the play on this one is the under — based on his system "Stadium Unders."
This system has a strong 26% return on investment (ROI) since its inception, including a 16% ROI this 2025-26 season alone.
In college basketball, games played in specific arenas often trend under due to consistent environmental and stylistic factors tied to the venue rather than neutral-court unfamiliarity.
Many of these places, both home and neutral, feature deeper backdrops, unique lighting, and court setups that slow the pace and limit shooting efficiency.
Teams playing in these environments (in this case, Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall) — especially those coming off an under in their previous outing — tend to continue that pattern as coaches emphasize defense and control over tempo.
Across multiple seasons, these venues have shown a reliable tendency toward lower-scoring outcomes, making the under a favorable position in arenas where shooting rhythm and offensive flow have historically been harder to sustain.
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Pick: Under 148 or Better
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Michigan vs. Iowa Projection
Shout out to my guy Stuckey for putting me onto this pick. Make sure to follow him in the Action Network App if you don't already.
This is a tricky sandwich spot for Michigan, which is off a big road win over Illinois and is likely looking ahead to Sunday’s major showdown with Michigan State back in Ann Arbor. I wonder if the Wolverines will look a little “off” on the road against the Hawkeyes.
Meanwhile, Iowa should come out with its hair on fire in a bounce-back spot following Saturday’s horrid loss against Penn State.
Michigan’s ball-screen coverage is slightly vulnerable at the point of attack (.81 PPP allowed, 48th percentile), which is where Bennett Stirtz loves to attack.
Plus, Iowa will grind this game to a halt, putting points at a premium and making it tough for Michigan to cover a near-double-digit spread.
The Wolverines have looked vulnerable on the road this season. They rank sub-250th nationally in Haslametrics’ Away From Home metric, where they’re just 6-7 ATS. I think back to road struggles with TCU and Penn State. They also only beat Washington on the road by 10, Oregon on the road by 10, and Northwestern on the road by 12, three teams that are far worse than Iowa.
At the same time, Iowa is 12-7 ATS at home.
Throw in some potential two-way 3-point shooting regression, and we could be in for a tight 40-minute Big Ten battle.
Ultimately, I project Iowa as just a 6.8-point home underdog, so I’d be willing to take a shot with the Hawkeyes at +9.5 or better, representing an almost three-point difference between the market and my projections.
Check out all of Tanner's CBB projections for Thursday here:
Pick: Iowa +9.5 or Better
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Manhattan vs. Fairfield
By Kyle Hunter
The Manhattan Jaspers take on the Fairfield Stags in the opening round of the MAAC Tournament.
Fairfield is clearly the better team, but the Stags and Jaspers split in the regular season.
This is a really high total for the MAAC Tournament. The Under is 37-17 in the last 54 MAAC Tournament games.
Neither team is pushing the pace all that much, and this one is played on a neutral floor in a larger venue than these teams are accustomed to on a regular basis.
Fairfield takes a lot of shots from inside the paint, but they rank in the bottom 25 nationally in near-proximity efficiency on offense.
Meanwhile, Manhattan takes a lot of long-range jumpers, which could be a real issue with the unusual shooting backdrop. The Jaspers were also wildly inconsistent on offense down the stretch.
A spread at this number does worry me at least somewhat for a late foul fest, but these two teams haven’t gotten to the line much this season.
Check out all of Kyle's mid-major breakdowns for Thursday here:
Pick: Under 150 or Better
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