CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Kansas State-TCU, 2 Other Monday Games
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: TCU forward Kouat Noi
- Wiseguys are betting three college basketball games on Monday, headlined by Virginia-Syracuse (7 p.m. ET on ESPN).
- Sharps are also getting down on Kansas State-TCU (9 p.m. ET on ESPN2) and Northern Arizona-Montana (9 p.m. ET on Pluto TV).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
You wouldn’t know it by the massive blizzard pummeling the Northeast, but the calendar has flipped to March and Spring is in the air. Believe it or not, conference tournaments begin today, starting with the little known Atlantic Sun.
Wiseguys are locked and loaded. They can taste the Madness.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Virginia @ Syracuse
7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 124.5 to 123)
Sharps and squares (casual bettors who bet for fun based on gut instinct) are on completely opposite sides of this marquee ACC showdown. It also happens to be the most heavily bet game of the night.
Virginia (26-2, ranked 2nd overall) is known for its stifling defense (allowing only 54.14 PPG this season) and Syracuse (19-10, unranked) plays the soul-crushing zone. However, the total is so low that the public says, “it has to go over.”
But wiseguys aren’t taking the bait.
This over/under opened at 123. Currently 69% of bets are taking the over, but 69% of dollars are taking the under. That early public betting pushed the total up to to 124.5, but wiseguys immediately hammered the under at the inflated value price.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked four separate steam and reverse line moves on the under. Sharps hammered under 124.5, then hit the under 124 twice, and even came back again on the under at 123.
Sharps might also be eyeing this first half under (57). According to Bet Labs, the first half under has gone an astounding 102-50 (67.1%) when Syracuse plays a conference opponent since 2005.
Kansas State @ TCU
9 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: TCU (stayed at +1.5)
On paper, this looks like an easy win and cover for the road favorite. But remember, games aren’t played on paper.
Kansas State (22-7, ranked 18th overall) has a far superior record compared to TCU (18-11, unranked) and is practically a pick’em. How can you not take the Wildcats to win by two points or more?
If a line stinks, there’s a reason behind it.
K-State opened as a short 1.5-point road favorite. Despite receiving nearly 70% of bets, the line has remained frozen at KSU -1.5. In fact, it’s even dipped to a pick’em throughout the day. This signals liability on the home dog, not the road favorite.
Wiseguys got down hard on TCU at +2, +1.5 and +1, triggering three separate steam and reverse line moves. Some buyback hit the market on KSU at a pick’em, causing the line to level back out at 1.5.
The Horned Frogs are getting only 31% of bets but 50% of dollars — further evidence of big pro bettors grabbing the points, not laying them.
Northern Arizona @ Montana
9 p.m. ET | Pluto TV
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 150.5 to 150)
This Big Sky over/under is flying under the radar. But wiseguys have been keying in on it all day.
The total opened at a high 150.5. Nearly 60% of bets are taking the under, which, on the surface, seems like a “public” play. However, we’ve tracked only 967 bets on this game. Simply put, Average Joes are not betting this obscure, small-school under. This majority of bets on the under is coming mostly from wiseguys with an edge.
As soon as the line was available, sharps hammered the Under 150.5, triggering market-wide steam that dropped the total down to 149.5 before it evened back out at 150.
This “high-total under” spot has cashed bigly for the wiseguys this season. When the total is 150 or higher, the under has hit at a 54.4% clip, winning 32.33 units this year.