The best tournament in sports is down to just 16 teams after an eventful weekend that saw the first No. 1 seed (Florida) heading home early.
Whether it's a second-chance bracket, a survivor pool or just betting in general, I'm here to help you recalibrate and re-seed the field ahead of the second weekend.
So, here's my NCAA Tournament bracket analysis before the Sweet 16.
16. Texas Longhorns
It’s a yearly tradition for a First Four team to make it to the second weekend, and Texas is this season's squad.
The Longhorns stormed past BYU before upsetting Gonzaga in the Round of 32. It all centers around Matas Vokietaitis, the burly seven-footer who dominated both teams he faced last week.
I still don’t love Texas’ guard play, but Jordan Pope and Tramon Mark played well.
I could see the Longhorns shocking Purdue, despite their low ranking on this list.
15. Iowa State Cyclones
I thought Iowa had no chance to beat Florida, but I doubted Ben McCollum. That was truly a fools errand because that Hawkeyes' pick-and-roll game with Bennett Stirtz is a total nightmare for opposing teams.
Is this the most talented team ever? No, but Stirtz elevates everyone else, and McCollum is an elite coach.
If Cooper Koch, Kael Combs and Alvaro Folgueiras shoot well, the Hawkeyes can make the Elite Eight.
14. Alabama Crimson Tide
A lot of teams in the Sweet 16 have multiple ways to keep their season alive. Alabama isn’t one of them. The Crimson Tide shot the lights out against Hofstra and Texas Tech, en route to big-time wins.
They’re shooting above their weight, though, and the inevitable variance will hit them soon.
Labaron Philon Jr. is a monster, but I’m not sure I trust the duo of Latrell Wrightsell and Houston Mallette to play like they have without Aden Holloway.
Eventually, the Tide will miss the impact of the 16 point-per-game scorer and 43% shooter.
13. Arkansas Razorbacks
The Razorbacks played a pair of tough mid-majors in the first two rounds, dropping 94 against Hawaii and 97 against High Point.
They can score 90+ points on anybody, thanks to their high-flying, explosive offense.
The downside is they can give up 90 points to anybody, limiting their upside in a major way.
Still, Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas are must watch.
12. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nebrasketball is alive and well! The Huskers have a top-10 defense in the sport and an offense that can operate much better than 52nd in the country if the get hot from deep.
The bigs (Rienk Mast and Berke Buyuktuncel) played well against Vandy. Pryce Sandfort is on a heater and Braden Frager is healthy.
It’s all coming up Nebraska.
11. UConn Huskies
Yes, I dropped UConn a bit here compared to its actual No. 2 seed.
Here’s why: Silas Demary Jr. looked less than 100% against UCLA. And what in the world happened to Solo Ball? He looks totally dejected — and I don’t blame him. He’s shooting around 30% from 3 and missed three straight wide open shots on one possession.
With a hampered Demary and a struggling Ball, UConn will need masterful showings from Alex Karaban and Braylon Mullins to make a deep run.
10. Tennessee Volunteers
I really thought about two teams for the 10 spot (UConn and Tennessee). I ultimately
picked Tennessee.
The Vols have a pair of stud scorers in Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament, with the best offensive rebounding bigs in the country.
That, along with their suffocating defense is enough for me to entrust a Rick Barnes-led bunch in March.
Usually, you don’t trust Barnes this time of year, but I’ll try it.
9. Purdue Boilermakers
It probably sounds crazy to have Purdue this low, but Miami (FL) exposed some of my worries with this team.
The Boilermakers have the worst defense of the one or two seeds, ranking 33rd in defensively efficiency. The Hurricanes made a living scoring inside on them.
Still, the Boilers have Braden Smith, and he’s a huge boost.
I just don’t see a team with a defense this shaky making a Final Four push.
8. Michigan State Spartans
It’s tough to doubt the legendary Tom Izzo in March.
And I wouldn’t say I’m doubting him, but can Michigan State keep shooting 40+% from deep? That's unlikely. Some serious regression could sting the Spartans and put their season to an end.
The Spartans have a lot going for them, too. Jeremy Fears Jr. might be the best point guard in the nation, and their defense shows up every game.
I just have seen too many lackluster offensive performances from them to trust it.
7. Illinois Fighting Illini
The No. 1 offense in the country was dominant in the first week of the NCAA Tournament, scoring 1.54 points per possession against Penn and 1.15 PPP against VCU.
It’ll be interesting to see how such a dominant offense fares against an imposing defense, like Houston.
Freshman phenom Keaton Wagler will need to play like a senior.
6. Iowa State Cyclones
No Joshua Jefferson? No problem. Iowa State lost its best player just a few minutes into the Tennessee State game, but it beat Kentucky by 19 without him.
The Cyclones always have a high floor with their elite defense.
If they can hit enough 3s, they’re a legit Final Four contender.
5. St. John's Red Storm
Call me crazy, but St. John's is better than any of the other two or three seeds left.
The Johnnies have won 21 of their last 22 games and thoroughly outplayed their past five opponents in postseason play.
I know Kansas fought back and St. John's needed a Dylan Darling buzzer beater, but it also led by 13 late in the second half.
With the toughness and pressure defense from the Red Storm being a constant, they just need a half decent offensive effort to compete with anybody.
4. Houston Cougars
It's time for Kelvin Sampson to shine. Houston rolled Idaho by 31 points and followed it up with another 31-point win over Texas A&M.
I love the Cougars' defense. They rank fourth in defensive efficiency, and you know Sampson will get a hearty effort from his group.
Can the trio of Kingston Flemings, Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp get hot enough? They've had some disappearing act games this season. Hopefully, that's a thing of the past, though.
3. Duke Blue Devils
The Blue Devils were the least impressive of the three remaining one seeds. Siena led for a good chunk of the 1-16 matchup, and TCU led early in the second half before the entire Horned Frogs team got in foul trouble.
The good? Duke can clamp down and go on a 10-0 run like nothing to put a team away.
Plus, Cam Boozer is a second-half machine. He could start slow, but he'll finish with 20/10/4.
The bad? Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II are clearly less than 100%. Foster might return for the Sweet 16, but he broke his foot two weeks ago. He'll be less than 100%. Ngongba returned for 13 uneventful minutes in the Round of 32.
Lastly, that St. John's matchup is nothing to scoff at. The Johnnies are really, really good — as you saw me mention above.
2. Arizona Wildcats
The No. 1 seed in the West — Arizona — got a bit of a scare from Utah State in the Round of 32. Alas, Mo Krivas saved the day with 14 rebounds (nine offensive) and Jaden Bradley hit a few clutch shots.
So, why is Arizona only at No. 2 in my re-seeding rankings? For one, I think the No. 1 team has an easier Sweet 16 matchup.
Secondly, I'm still worried about the Wildcats' shooting. Attempting 3s just 26% of the time — and winning it all — seems unfathomable in this era.
Perhaps Arizona is the exception.
1. Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines impressed during the first weekend, beating Howard by 21 and Saint Louis by 23.
The trio of Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara is another level of dominant.
Good luck getting past Lendeborg — and if the opponent does, they probably can't score through Johnson or over Mara.
When Michigan is shooting it well, there's nobody that can match them. The pace, defense and elite interior play keep Dusty May's squad a cut above the other 15 remaining teams.
