CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting New Mexico-Saint Mary’s, TCU-USC

CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting New Mexico-Saint Mary’s, TCU-USC article feature image

Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andy Enfield

  • Wiseguys are betting two college basketball games on Friday night: New Mexico vs. Saint Mary's (7 p.m. ET) and TCU vs. USC (9:30 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how sharps are betting both games.

Timing is everything in sports betting, but it’s not just about shopping for the best line. Sharps are also cognizant of the betting calendar.

Many sharps tread lightly like Walter White early in the college basketball season. Why? Because the public is still fixated on football and hasn’t gotten into college hoops yet. This means that the ticket counts are low and there’s less contrarian value. Sharps are also waiting for conference play to begin — that’s when dogs bark the loudest.

This doesn’t mean sharps ignore college hoops in November and December, it just means that they’re extra disciplined when picking their spots.

After breaking down the data using our Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed two college basketball games sharps are betting on Friday night: New Mexico-Saint Mary’s and TCU-USC.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Full Sports Betting Glossary

>> All odds as of 1 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college basketball odds and track your bets.

New Mexico vs. Saint Mary’s

7 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 159.5 to 157)

In the most heavily bet game of the night, the public doesn’t know which way to go on the over/under, but sharps have taken a clear side.

Fifty-three percent of bets are on the over as of writing (see live data here), but 67% of dollars are on the under. This massive bet vs. dollar discrepancy indicates there’s big sharp wagers on a low scoring game.

After opening at 159.5, Wiseguys across the offshore market got down hard on the under, triggering a pair of steam moves that forced the books to drop the line down to 157. We haven’t see a single conflicting over move or any buyback on the over.

The under is also in a profitable historical spot. This neutral-court matchup fits the “Under with Good Over Teams” PRO system at Bet Labs: 56.4%, +155.81 units won since 2005.


9:30 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 149 to 148)

You guessed it: This is another sharp neutral-court under.

Fifty-nine percent of bets are on the under as of writing, indicating moderate public support. But the under also accounts for a whopping 89% of dollars — clear evidence of large wiseguy wagers on the under.

Pro bettors steamed the under twice. This overload of smart money forced the books to drop the line from 149 to 148.

Why are neutral-court unders so profitable? Because the players are in unfamiliar territory. They aren’t accustomed to the courts, backboards and rims. And both teams are “away” without the benefit of a warm home crowd.

According to our Bet Labs software, the under has hit 53.5% with +107.15 units won in neutral court games since 2005.

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