Colorado vs Colorado State Odds, Pick for Wednesday

Editor's Note: Colorado State's Patrick Cartier (back) is out.

There's nothing quite like an in-state rivalry, especially when both teams are top-25 caliber squads.

And that's exactly what we have here when the Colorado Buffaloes travel to Fort Collins, Colorado, on Wednesday to face the Colorado State Rams.

The Rams are a new AP Top 25 poll member, checking in at No. 20 after defeating No. 9 Creighton on Thanksgiving.

Surprisingly, Colorado State held an elite Bluejays offense to 49 points. That's not the winning formula Colorado State typically follows, but it's another reason these Rams are dangerous.

Who knows if the Rams' defense is really good — or if Creighton had an off-shooting night. The result against Colorado could uncover the truth one way or another, though.

The numbers make the defense look good, as the Rams rank 42nd in KenPom's Defensive Efficiency.

The main way Colorado State wins is because of point guard Isaiah Stevens, who's one of the premier guards in America. He's averaging 17.5 points and 7.8 assists per game and shoots 58% from the field. The Rams luckily kept Stevens from transferring and chasing the NIL. He's worth every penny.

Stevens is the type of player you can ride to a conference championship solely based off of his singular impact on the game. That also means he can win plenty of games based on his playmaking and scoring ability, including a rivalry game against an in-state foe.

You can bet Stevens will feel the intensity of this one.

Unfortunately, Colorado State's win over Creighton came at a cost. Starting forward Patrick Cartier left the game early and was seen hobbling on his way to celebrate with his teammates. His status is unknown for this one, but that's a potentially notable missing cog for the Rams.

Freshman Rashaun Mbemba likely draws the start if Cartier can't go. The highly-gifted freshman scored 13 points on 6-of-8 shooting in the win over Creighton.

The Rams boast one of the nation's most effective offenses, shooting 52% from the floor and 39% from downtown. Most of the production comes from the creation skill of Stevens, but don't forget about Joel Scott at the five and wing Nique Clifford converting on shots.

While Colorado State is undefeated and ranked, Colorado is the flagship program of the state — whether deserved or not, it's reality.

The Buffaloes enter this game with their only blemish coming against Florida State last week. Otherwise, the Buffs looked awfully impressive against mid-major competition. However, it's imperative to show they can defeat top-25 caliber teams, so this is the perfect time to play Colorado State.

It's easy to spot when Colorado is good and when it's not. The Buffs' success hinges on the play of point guard KJ Simpson. He posted five really efficient scoring outings and one inefficient performance — a 5-of-22 disaster against FSU.

Colorado needs the good Simpson to come into Fort Collins.

The biggest edge to me comes in the frontcourt. Colorado starts two highly valuable pieces in Tristan da Silva — an All-Conference-caliber player — and sturdy center Eddie Lampkin Jr.

Da Silva is the Buffs' second-leading scorer (15.5 PPG), and he offers unique skills that are tough to defend. With remarkable athleticism and length, da Silva also scores in various ways, which could expose the Rams' defense.

The other starter — Lampkin — is tremendous at defending inside and rebounding. Lampkin has a four-inch advantage over the Rams' starting five-man, so that's a significant boost for the road team.

The biggest knocks on Lampkin's game are his need for more consistency and his finishing ability at the hoop (shooting 48%).

If you have the physical traits Lampkin does, it's almost impossible to shoot below 50% from the floor — unless you have poor shot selection or no touch at all. The TCU transfer has a big test awaiting him in this one.

The Buffs' depth isn't substantial, so staying out of foul trouble is key for all five starters, especially da Silva and Lampkin.

Colorado feels undervalued here.

I like Colorado State, but Colorado is the more talented team from top to bottom.

The Rams laying more than a possession is too much here.

Pick: Colorado +3.5

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