Duke vs Vermont Odds & Betting Preview | NCAA Tournament Prediction (Friday, March 22)

I feel awful about my beloved Catamounts' first-round game with Duke, which presents various matchup issues.

Still, I’m betting the game while praying for a Catamount miracle.

Duke’s offense revolves around Kyle Filipowski in the screen-and-roll game, and he shows great vision in the short-roll.

His hard-rolling ability drags defenses toward the interior. Filipowski reads and reacts to defensive rotations so quickly that he immediately finds open perimeter shooters when doubled.

His vision is why Duke ranks among the top 90 teams nationally in Open 3 Rate and shoots 39% from 3.

Meanwhile, Vermont’s ball-screen coverage is shaky. Even in the AmEast Tournament final against UMass Lowell, the motion-based River Hawks hit the pockets and slashed to the rim through on-ball screens.

The Catamounts adjusted, but their success was based more on Lowell's lineups. I asked John Becker about that post-game:

They were killing us in ball screens by hitting the pockets,” Becker said. “But [Lowell’s Max] Brooks gets in foul trouble, and they had to play [Quinton] Mincey at the four, where their spacing is much better. When Brooks was in there, we could muck up all those rolls using help from another big. With Mincey in there, they were hitting that pocket, and our bigs were recovering late. But Brooks played more in the second half, and we returned to our original coverage.

Lowell doesn’t space the floor. Duke leverages Filipowski to pop open its bevy of perimeter threats. I don’t see how Vermont will be able to muddy ball screens as it did against Lowell.

Ileri Ayo-Faleye is the best three-level defender in the mid-majors. With his athleticism and roll-man defense (.36 PPP allowed, 95th percentile), he has an excellent shot at defending Filipowski one-on-one.

But the Cats struggle to switch on ball screens. If Filipowski can slip the Ileri matchup and switch onto the more slow-footed Nick Fiorillo or the injured Matt Veretto, he could score at will.

Fiorillo was constantly burnt by Lowell’s big men in the championship game. While he's practicing, Veretto’s shoulder injury means he currently “lacks physicality,” a source told me, which could get ugly against power-conference competition.

Even worse, I’d imagine the Catamounts try fronting the post, as they did with America East Player of the Year Clarence Daniels in the semifinal matchup against New Hampshire:

But Daniels is a poor passer, recording 12 assists in 30 games. Filipowski will hit every Duke shooter if Becker is forced to front.

Becker’s five-out motion offense has killed America East defenses for years, but the Cats have regressed significantly.

They're vulnerable to long draughts of stale offense.

Shamir Bogues and Ayo-Faleye are among the best defensive players to come through Burlington, but they also shoot a combined 27% from 3 on low volume, meaning defenses can shrink the floor and force everything over the top.

The more significant issue is post-scoring.

Vermont’s best teams had Taylor Coppenrath, Anthony Lamb and Ryan Davis as back-to-the-basket scorers.

When shots aren’t falling, the Catamounts shapeshift into ball-screen mode. They hunt rollers to generate at-the-rim opportunities, dragging defenses down, opening the perimeter so the five-out can cook again.

These Cats don’t have that. Ileri is a surprisingly effective post-up player, but he’s no Davis. It's the same with Fiorillo. Veretto is more of a finesse pick-and-popper than a power roller, and his injury will ensure that’s the case in Brooklyn.

When scoring droughts come, Vermont can’t adjust.

However, Vermont isn’t useless in this area. When things get bad, the Cats lean into Bogues' bully ball.

The best example comes from the AmEast Tournament quarterfinal game against Albany.

As Vermont went stale, Bogues put the offense on his back by driving to the hole.

The Catamounts trailed by one with 40 seconds left, and Bogues took the ball at the right break. However, he dished it to Deloney out of pressure, who found a two-on-one on the back side with Fiorillo and Long, and the Albany rotations couldn’t keep up:

After the game, Becker said he drew up the play for Bogues, but he knew the Danes would aggressively trap him from the wings, ultimately opening up a corner shot for the Catamounts' top sharpshooter.

If Vermont wants to break out of stale stretches, it needs to get the ball to Bogues and get out of the way. His bully-ball scoring ability can re-open the five-out.

Unfortunately, the Blue Devils' backcourt boasts a monster athletic advantage. Jeremy Roach and Tyrese Proctor are devastating point-of-attack defenders.

As a result, Duke is a solid 3-point defense, ranking in the top 100 nationally in 3-point rate and Open 3 Rate Allowed. The Devils close out on 61% of catch-and-shoot jumpers, a top-45 mark.

It’ll be tough for the Cats to initiate their five-out motion against an athletic, capable perimeter defense, and their recourse is to use Bogues to drive into devastating point-of-attack guards.

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The Cats needed to play an up-tempo squad that would be uncomfortable running into Vermont's dynamite transition denial.

Unfortunately, they drew Duke, which is most comfortable playing in the half-court. The Blue Devils are 1-3 in games over 70 possessions and 23-5 otherwise.

I’m pessimistic about Vermont’s chances, but there's a four-step path to an upset.

1. Ileri needs to shut down Filipowski without help, allowing Vermont to stick tight on Duke’s shooters.
2. Becker needs to make critical second-half ball-screen coverage adjustments. Bogues must be a big part of that game plan, especially on Roach.
3. Three: Aaron Deloney and TJ Long need to hit every shot over the top of Proctor, Roach and Mark Mitchell.
4. The Catamounts are highly physical behind Ayo-Faleye and Bogues. Duke is talented but soft, and Vermont must show its most aggressive brand of basketball.

I’m unsure if the Cats can execute, but I’m willing to bet they can defend.

Remember, this is Becker’s best defensive team ever by efficiency. Ayo-Faleye can contain Filipowski, Bogues can stick with perimeter guards and the team can close out on shooters.

I’m more worried about the offense, as I expect long stretches of stale offense against Duke’s backcourt defense.

Combine this analysis with the expected snail’s pace, and I’m betting on a first-round rock fight in Brooklyn.

Vermont and Duke are a combined 42-22 (66%) to the under this season.

Pick: Under 132.5 (Play to 130)