Florida State vs Duke Odds, Picks | Betting Guide to ACC Tilt

Florida State vs Duke Odds, Picks | Betting Guide to ACC Tilt article feature image

Photo by Chris Leduc/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Chandler Jackson (Florida State)

Florida State vs. Duke Odds

Saturday, Dec. 31
2 p.m. ET
Florida State Odds
-110o / -110u
Duke Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

Florida State had a disastrous non-conference showing, with a 1-9 start and embarrassing losses to Stetson and Siena.

But the Seminoles have shown some signs of life as conference play has begun. The Seminoles are 2-1 in league play — and were competitive in the loss at Virginia.

They'll face a difficult test on Saturday when they travel to Cameron Indoor Stadium to take on Duke.

In a sign of how balanced the ACC is this season, Duke went to Wake Forest and lost by 11 as a solid road favorite. The Blue Devils had the entire Christmas break to stew on that defeat, and now should be refocused to take down the Seminoles.

From a matchup perspective, the Blue Devils have a clear advantage on the offensive glass and should get plenty of offensive rebounds. But the number on the Seminoles is still too steep, as the market went from too high on them early in the season to too low on them at the current price.

Florida State Seminoles

Florida State's biggest issue in this matchup is defensive rebounding. Duke attacks the glass with fervor — it's No. 4 in the country (per KenPom) in offensive rebounding rate.

And despite their size, the Seminoles don't do a good job cleaning up the defensive glass. Florida State is 337th in defensive rebounding percentage.

There are other parts of this matchup that are more favorable for Florida State, though. The Seminoles like to run in transition and grade out pretty well there. Because Duke sends its forward to rebound, it can be vulnerable in transition, and will give up looks because of it.

The Seminoles' biggest problem on defense has been their inability to guard the perimeter and on the fast break.

Duke isn't running nearly as much this season as it's done in years past. The Blue Devils are 230th in offensive possession length average. And they're not a good jump-shooting team, either.

A lot of the Seminoles' poor start was due to teams hitting perimeter jump shots at unsustainable rates against them. Florida State's perimeter defense has holes, but teams were exposing that way more than you'd expect.

Duke can't really expose that hole at all, as it has middling jump-shooting talent.

Duke Blue Devils

Duke's defense remains elite on the perimeter and does an excellent job of taking away 3-pointers from opponents. It's a top-25 defense against 3s. That's elite, but it doesn't matter quite as much in this matchup.

Florida State's offense doesn't rely at all on the perimeter, as the Noles like to get the ball downhill toward the hoop as much as possible.

The Blue Devils' biggest defensive issues have come in transition — where they are average, as said before — and in guarding ball screens. Florida State's ball-screen offense hasn't been good this season, but the Blue Devils' defense has been bad, too.

This could be a spot for the Seminoles to figure out their issues against a bad defense.

Duke normally is used to a significant size and athleticism advantage in most of its matchups. But that isn't the case against Florida State, which is long and can match the Blue Devils physically.

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Florida State vs. Duke Betting Pick

The floor of the market came on Florida State at the end of November, and it remained undervalued throughout most of December.

When they were huge underdogs against Purdue and Virginia, the Seminoles had no problem covering. In the "toilet bowl" against Louisville, FSU dominated. The Seminoles even beat Notre Dame as a home underdog just before Christmas.

If this line were 11-12 — as it would have been at the beginning of the season — I'd stay away. But while Florida State has loudly underperformed expectations and been downgraded, the market hasn't downgraded Duke far enough for its inconsistent non-conference showings.

Anything 14 or better is good enough for me to fire on the Seminoles on Saturday in Durham.

Pick: Florida State +14 or Better

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