Houston vs BYU Odds, Pick: Bet the Home Team

Two of the Big 12 newcomers will meet on the hardwood Tuesday night when No. 21 BYU hosts No. 4 Houston at the Marriott Center.

After dropping two of three to start conference play, Kelvin Sampson’s team won its last two games to move to 16-2. Meanwhile, BYU has struggled so far in league action, dropping three of five to own a 14-4 overall record.

The battle of the Cougars is between a pair of top-10 teams in the NET and KenPom rankings, which should give us a great game in the Big 12.

Sampson has built an elite basketball program at Houston. The school owns the nation’s longest active streak with 76 consecutive weeks in the AP Top 25.

This is the same team that has at least made the Sweet 16 in the last four NCAA Tournaments, and Sampson has the squad primed for another run in March. Houston sits at the top of the NET rankings with four Quad 1 wins. Only Purdue, Arizona, UConn and Wisconsin have more top-tier victories.

Beyond Sampson, two veterans who have been around for much of the recent success have been Jamal Shead and J’Wan Roberts. Both have over 100 career wins at the school and they are looking for more hardware to add to the trophy case.

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It is another ranked opponent on the schedule for coach Mark Pope’s team. This will be the fourth ranked team BYU has played in its last five contests.

That's something this program will have to get accustomed to in the jump to the Big 12. If you go by the recent rankings released Monday, the Cougars will have five more games against top-25 opponents.

One way to compete against top opposition is to continue to fire away from beyond the arc. Only North Florida makes more 3-pointers per game than BYU’s 12.4. Pope’s squad has connected on 10 or more shots from beyond the arc in all but three contests, with two of those resulting in a loss.

The top sharpshooter on the roster has been Trevin Knell. The redshirt junior forward is fifth in the country at 47.1% from beyond the arc, and he is also in the top 50 in 3-pointers made per game.

This is a contrast of styles in this one, with BYU liking to push the tempo and Houston playing extremely slow. The difference keeps me away from the total, but I do see value on the side.

My best bet for this game is to take the home team on the spread of +3.5. If this drops below the key number of three, I would play the moneyline instead.

I just trust BYU to make more shots in this contest compared to a Houston team that is outside the top 120 in shooting both 3-pointers (123rd) and shots inside the arc (220th). Meanwhile, Pope’s team is inside the top 50 in both metrics.

One key to the rebounding battle will be the status of BYU big man Noah Waterman. He missed the game against Texas Tech over the weekend, so keep an eye out for his availability.

If Waterman is in, this is going to be a tricky trip for Houston, traveling to play in elevation. Sampson’s team lost its first two road conference games, and this one should be tough too.

Pick: BYU +3.5 (Play ML if Drops Below +3)

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