NCAAB Odds, Pick for Indiana vs Nebraska

Big Ten conference play is in full swing, and there is quite the overlooked matchup between the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Indiana Hoosiers on Wednesday.

Nebraska is one of the surprises so far in the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers only have two losses: one to Creighton and one to Minnesota while they have noteworthy wins over Michigan State, Kansas State and Duquesne.

Indiana is 10-3 with losses to UConn, Auburn and Kansas and has top-100 KenPom wins over Maryland and Michigan.

However, Nebraska does not have the most prestigious résumé, and both teams have comparable defenses. Indiana is a six-point road underdog, but can the Hoosiers keep this matchup close?

The Hoosiers mainly focus on getting the ball inside. They are shooting 55.3% from inside the arc while only hoisting 3s 25.7% of the time. So far this season, 59.7% of Indiana’s points have come from 2-point range with 22.5% coming from on free throws.

Keep an eye on Kel’el Ware and Xavier Johnson, who may both be out. Ware is overcoming an illness, so having one 3-point threat would be helpful for the flow of this offense.

One drawback in this matchup is how well Nebraska’s defense has fared inside. The Cornhuskers are limiting opponents to the sixth-fewest points per possession at the rim, per Shot Quality. They also are not fouling much, owning the 16th-best defensive Free Throw Attempt Rate. That said, their strength of schedule ranks 297th overall. Simply put, they have been padding their defensive numbers against weak competition.

Rebounding has been one of Indiana’s main weaknesses this season. The Hoosiers rank 224th in Offensive Rebounding Rate and 139th in Defensive Rebounding Rate. Nebraska ranks 66th offensively and 160th defensively, so although the Cornhuskers have an edge, it may not be a drastic one. Rienk Mast recently had knee surgery and is by far the best rebounder on Nebraska, so this could become an edge for Indiana.

On the other end of the court, Nebraska shoots a ton of 3s. The Cornhuskers rank 32nd in 3-point Attempt Rate, while Indiana is yielding 34.7% from deep. However, Nebraska is only shooting 32.9% from outside the arc collectively. The Huskers rank 255th in Open 3 Rate, while Indiana ranks 96th defensively.

The Hoosiers should have an edge, actually, against the Nebraska offensive attack, as CJ Wilcher and Juwan Gary are the only Cornhuskers getting meaningful minutes and shooting above 35%.

Nebraska also does not get to the free-throw line too much, even if it does not foul often on the defensive end. The Cornhuskers rank 116th in offensive Free Throw Attempt Rate. Indiana ranks 62nd defensively, so this could be one area of strength for the Hoosiers, even on the road.

Finally, both Indiana and Nebraska can slow opponent pace down defensively. Nebraska ranks 343rd at 18.4 seconds per possession on defense, while Indiana ranks 215th at 17.4 seconds per possession on defense. This should factor into this game, as the fewer possessions between these two can yield a closer matchup.

Nebraska is mainly missing a crucial piece in Mast in the post, which would usually provide a boost over Indiana at home. I also do not trust Nebraska’s fraudulent strength of schedule. Sure, they have a few key wins, but they have boosted their overall stats by beating up on bad teams.

Indiana played a close game with Kansas, one of the best in the country, and has the defensive wherewithal to stick close in this game on the road.

Take the Hoosiers in this game from +6 at -110 to +4.5 at -110. It could even be decided by one possession.

Pick: Indiana +6 (Play to +4.5)