Indiana vs Wisconsin Odds, Pick: Target This Total

Wisconsin finally dropped its first contest in Big Ten conference play. The Badgers lost to Penn State on the road earlier this week, continuing a steady trend of road losses for many teams across the country in power conferences.

Wisconsin will likely get back on track in Friday’s matchup against the Indiana Hoosiers at home, but this line is a bit too steep to take the Badgers. That being said, Wisconsin should dictate the pace of this game and limit the overall number of possessions.

Indiana is definitely going to end up in the cellar in the Big Ten, even with the return of point guard Xavier Johnson.

This team struggles to convert from 3-point distance, and the Hoosiers do not launch many 3s either. They rank 144th in Open 3 Rate and are hitting less than 34% from downtown. It would help if Indiana could shoot the 3 more often considering Wisconsin struggles mightily in guarding the perimeter — with their opponents shooting over 35% from beyond the arc. The Badgers also rank outside the top 300 in Open 3 Rate defensively.

Johnson, Malik Reneau and Kel’el Ware are extremely efficient from outside, shooting over 40% from deep each. That said, none have taken many 3-pointers overall. Trey Galloway has hoisted the greatest number of 3s for the Hoosiers, and he's shooting just 28.8% from outside.

(Photo by CBB Analytics)

Indiana will have a mismatch with Wisconsin because it cannot rebound. The Hoosiers rank below 235th in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Meanwhile, Wisconsin ranks fifth defensively and 100th offensively. Ware can crash the glass, but Wisconsin has rebounding help from nearly every position.

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Wisconsin does a good job maintaining control over the ball. The Badgers rank 52nd in offensive turnover rate. On the other hand, they do not turn over opponents too often, so much of this game could be played in the half court — and thus, in Wisconsin’s pace.

Wisconsin utilizes more than 19 seconds per possession and plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. Indiana is usually much quicker, but since the Hoosiers allow opponents to take their time, this game should be played however Wisconsin would like.

Wisconsin is effective from inside and out, but the Badgers do not take many shots from deep. Much like the Hoosiers, they like to get the ball inside. Indiana has a strong interior defense and ranks in the top 60 of the NCAA in Rim and 3 Rate defensively, per Shot Quality. Simply put, the Hoosiers force opponents to take inefficient shots the majority of the time. Wisconsin ranks 200th in offensive Rim and 3 Rate and 10th on defense. These are the ingredients for a pretty poor shooting game.

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Wisconsin will win the rebounding battle in this one, but the Badgers are far better on the defensive glass than offensively. Neither team will be playing much in transition, and neither shoots a ton from outside. Take the under in this game at 143.5 and play that to 142.

Pick: Under 143.5 (Play to 142)

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