Iowa vs. Oregon Betting Odds & Pick: Value on Over/Under in Second Round of NCAA Tournament
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Connor McCaffery and Luka Garza.
Iowa vs. Oregon Odds
Iowa cruised past Grand Canyon without much of a sweat on Sunday, while Oregon didn’t have to sweat at all, as it moved past VCU due to COVID-19 issues within the Rams’ program.
While we never want to see a game canceled or postponed, it does set up a fantastic matchup between two elite offenses for the right to move on to the Sweet 16.
It’s been a dream season for the Hawkeyes, who earned their highest seed in more than 30 years thanks in large part to the play of Naismith favorite Luka Garza. The Hawks ended the Big Ten regular season on fire, winning eight of their last nine games, with the only loss coming to Michigan. Iowa has one of the most dynamic offenses in the country and it will be on full display Monday.
Oregon got a break in the first round, but let’s not get things twisted. This Oregon team is finally starting to put everything together.
The Ducks battled injuries to some of their key players all season long, but are finally healthy after getting star guard Will Richardson back late in the season. However, the last time on the court, they got knocked off by in-state rival Oregon State and were only able to put up 64 points.
They’ll need a much better showing against Iowa if they are going to keep up with the Hawks’ offense.
When Iowa Has the Ball
Outside of Gonzaga, Iowa is the most offensively dominant team in the country.
The Hawkeyes can beat teams from all over the court, as they led the best conference in the country in efficiency, averaging 1.15 points per possession.
It helps when you have the most dominant big man in all of college basketball in Garza. The senior is averaging 23.7 points per game and can score from all over the court, hitting more than 57% from down low while also stepping out and hitting 42.7% from beyond the arc. He’s going to be a huge matchup problem from Oregon, who doesn’t start a player taller than 6-foot-6 and struggles defending down low. The Ducks allowed almost 52% from inside the arc during Pac-12 play.
Another reason the Hawkeyes are so good offensively is because of their fantastic ball movement. Even though they have maybe the best player in college basketball in Garza, the Hawks hardly do any isolation ball, as evidenced by their 64.1% assist rate on made field-goal attempts, the fifth-highest rate in the country.
Garza gets all of the attention, but the guy who doesn’t and should is Joe Wieskamp. Wieskamp is almost automatic from behind the arc, hitting 47.3% of his 3-point attempts. Shooting 3s is what Iowa does best, as the Hawkeyes have four guys who are shooting better than 39% from beyond the arc. Oregon was below average at defending the perimeter in the Pac-12, so Iowa should be bombs away on Monday.
When Oregon Has the Ball
Much like the Hawkeyes, Oregon boasts one of the best offenses in the country, ranking 14th in offensive efficiency.
And the Ducks can hit from all over the court. They led the Pac-12 in efficiency, averaging almost 1.10 points per possession mainly due to their fantastic 3-point shooting. The Ducks shoot 37.9% from beyond the arc and are able to spread the wealth, as four of their five starters are shooting better than 37% from deep.
That’s going to be a problem for the Hawkeyes, who have really struggled to defend the perimeter this season, allowing 34.5% from beyond the arc.
While Oregon doesn’t have a true big man, the Ducks are long and athletic, with four of their five starters standing 6-foot-6. Oregon is likely going to try to move Garza outside of the paint and make him defend on the perimeter, which will allow driving lanes to open up against the Hawkeyes’ elite interior defense.
Oregon does a terrible job at getting to the free-throw line (292nd in free-throw rate) and is not going to be able to get to the line very often, because Iowa allows the ninth-lowest free-throw rate in the country, per KenPom.
Betting Analysis & Pick
This game is going to be a 3-point barrage between two of the best shooting teams in the country.
Given the struggles both defenses have had on the perimeter, I think that is going to lead to a shootout. Oregon plays a slow pace to that of the national average, but Iowa loves to get out and run, so I think the Hawks will try to do a lot of their scoring in transition.
I have 153.45 points projected for this game, so I think there is some value on over 147 points between two of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation.
Pick: Over 147 (up to 149.5).