Iowa State vs Mississippi State or Pitt Odds, Opening Spread, Projections for 2023 NCAA Tournament

Iowa State vs Mississippi State or Pitt Odds, Opening Spread, Projections for 2023 NCAA Tournament article feature image
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Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Caleb Grill (Iowa State)

With the March Madness bracket finally set, let's take a closer look at the first-round matchup between 6-seed TCU and the winner of Mississippi State vs Pitt in the First Four ahead of the 2023 NCAA Tournament below.

Find one of our expert's projected odds, another's instant reaction, and how these teams match up below to start making your betting and bracket picks.

Projected Iowa State vs. Mississippi State or Pitt Odds

Projected Iowa State vs Mississippi State OddsIowa State -2
Projected Iowa State vs Pitt OddsIowa State -6
March Madness projections as of Selection Sunday. Find the latest NCAA Tournament projections here.

Statistical Matchup

Iowa St.Mississippi St.
325Tempo334
OFFDEF
178eFG%19
284TO%23
27R%214
297FTR74
DEFOFF
152eFG%328
2TO %257
91R%15
338FTR81
All statistics courtesy of ShotQuality.

Statistical Matchup

Iowa St.Pittsburgh
325Tempo174
OFFDEF
178eFG%108
284TO%265
27R%169
297FTR165
DEFOFF
152eFG%50
2TO %62
91R%121
338FTR141
All statistics courtesy of ShotQuality.


Instant Analysis

If Mississippi State wins the First Four matchup with Pittsburgh, the total in the following game against Iowa State may be one of the lowest of the first round.

For starters, both squads are elite defensively, ranking inside the top 10 in AdjD, according to BartTorvik. The Bulldogs are also in the top 40 in effective field goal percentage (20th), forcing turnovers (23rd) and opponents’ 2-point (34th) and 3-point shooting (28th).

The pace will also aide to a very slow, grinding game, with both programs outside the top 325 in tempo, according to KenPom. Once you add in the fact that MSU would have the short turnaround on tired legs, head coach Chris Jans’ offense is not going to be a pretty.

This also could be a great spot to play a first-half under, as both teams are in the top 20 in scoring defense in the opening half of games. Meanwhile, they’re also outside the top 190 in first-half scoring offense.

— Brett Pund

For more coverage of the 2023 NCAA Tournament and Selection Sunday, make sure to check out our experts' live reactions to the bracket reveal and the Selection Sunday live show, where you can get their instant analysis on every matchup as well as some early insights to help you make your bets.

Don't forget to print out your 2023 NCAA Tournament bracket, as well — and while you're there, enter the bet 365 Bracket Challenge content for your chance to win up to $10,000,000. Enter for free at actionnetwork.com/bracket.

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