Iowa vs. Illinois Sharp Betting Pick (March 8): How Pros Are Hitting the Over/Under
Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Garza
- Illinois and Iowa will square off in Iowa City on Sunday in a pivotal Big Ten matchup to help determine seeding for the conference tournament.
- Sharp bettors have already made their mark on this game, shifting the total since the line opened. How have they pushed the over/under?
- See the full analysis below.
The Big Ten is king of the Sunday college hoops slate, and throughout the day today, eight Big Ten teams — including six ranked ones — will close out their respective regular seasons.
Among those ranked teams going head to head are No. 18 Iowa and No. 23 Illinois. Iowa enters this game one back of Illinois in the conference standings, and with the two ranked similarly, the Illini are given a 3.5-point edge in the betting market — essentially labeling the two as pretty even teams on a neutral court.
But while Illinois may be drawing the majority of bets as the home team today, it’s not the spread that’s caught the eye of sharp bettors. Instead, they’re finding value on a total that opened around 145.
Iowa vs. Illinois Sharp Betting Pick
7 p.m. ET
As is often the case (because most bettors don’t want to root for good defense and missed shots), the over has been the popular side of this total. Sixty-eight percent of bets, to be exact, are landing on it as of the late morning.
And while it’s also often the case that sharps find value against popular sides, in this case, they’ve been in agreement with the masses.
That 68% backing has generated 80% of actual money hitting the total, meaning bigger bets — the ones more likely to come from sharps — are among that majority.
And to confirm the sharp action, three Sports Insights Bet Signals — real-time indicators of pro action based on market activity — have hit the over at lines ranging from 146 to 147.
As a result, this total is now at 148.5 across most of the market, though it’s worth noting that the most recent move was not upward.
After hitting high-water marks between 149 and 150, it finally received some buyback from sharps, evidenced by a fourth Bet Signal on the under at 149. Should the recent downward movement continue, though, it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see pros pounce on the over once again.
Sharp angle: Over (146, 146.5, 147) [Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]