Jacksonville vs. Notre Dame Odds, Picks | College Basketball Betting Guide (Tuesday, Dec. 27)
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- The Notre Dame Fighting Irish look to snap a three-game losing streak on Tuesday evening when they host the Jacksonville Dolphins.
- While this looks like it could be a mismatch on paper, the underdog Dolphins have some strengths that could make this closer than oddsmakers expect.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Jacksonville vs. Notre Dame Odds
-110o / -110u
|Notre Dame Odds|
-110o / -110u
Notre Dame has had six days off to think about its three-game losing streak and now returns to South Bend on Tuesday against Jacksonville looking to get back in the win column.
The Dolphins are far from an easy win, however, as they’re 7-3 on the season including an impressive 11-point victory over VCU.
The Dolphins have relied heavily on their defense. Can they do enough to keep it close against the Fighting Irish?
The Dolphins have lost to three teams this season: Duke, UAB and UNC-Wilmington. All three not only boast a massive advantage regarding talent, but they were able to win at both ends of the floor. Each team limited the Dolphins to 61 points or fewer, something I don’t think Notre Dame will be able to do.
Jacksonville only averages 61.9 points per game and has posted an effective field goal percentage of just 51%. However, if they can adjust their game slightly I think there could be a massive advantage for the Dolphins against Notre Dame.
So far this season, Jacksonville has posted field goal percentages of 67% at the rim and 49.3% in the paint. Notre Dame has been abysmal defending the paint, particularly of late. Over their last five games, the Irish have allowed teams to hit 71.6% at the rim and 53.2% in the paint, putting them in the bottom 5 percentile of both.
Shifting their focus to attacking the basket could pay massive dividends for Jacksonville against Notre Dame.
On the defensive side of the ball, Jacksonville should be able to limit Notre Dame in two areas they’ve specifically been great this season: getting to the free throw line and on the perimeter.
Jacksonville ranks 35th in the nation in 3-point defense, where it has held opposing teams to just 28.9%. The Dolphins also come in at 62nd in free throw attempts concede at just 14.9 per game.
Keeping Notre Dame away from the free throw line will be of the utmost importance as it is one of the top five teams in the country, hitting 80.4% at the line.
My biggest concern with the Irish is that they won’t be able to take advantage of what has been Jacksonville’s biggest weakness this season.
The Dolphins have had serious issues in regards to turnovers, giving up the ball on 21.3% of possessions. However, Notre Dame has been one of the worst in the nation at forcing turnovers. Opponents have turned the ball over on just 12.4% of possessions against Notre Dame, ranking 363rd in the nation.
Rebounding is another concern for Notre Dame. While neither team has been great, the Irish have struggled considerably more. Jacksonville averages 8.6 offensive rebounds per game and 27.4 defensive rebounds per game. The Irish, on the other hand, come down with just 6.3 rebounds on the offensive end and 24.5 on the defensive end.
The Irish may have a significant height advantage around the rim, but it didn’t help them against Lipscomb, which outrebounded the Irish despite ranking 234th in average height.
Jacksonville vs. Notre Dame Betting Pick
I do expect Notre Dame to get back into the win column against the Dolphins, however I think this game will be much closer than the current line reflects. Jacksonville’s defense will be able to keep the Notre Dame offense at bay, while the Dolphins offense should be able to find a considerable amount of success against the Irish.
Both teams’ lack of pace should also help keep this game close, as they both rank outside the top 300 in regards to adjusted tempo. Free throws likely won’t play a factor either as neither team averages more than 14 fouls per contest.
I would feel comfortable backing the Dolphins at +7 or better against Notre Dame.
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