Kansas vs. Providence Sweet 16 Odds: Friars Look to Continue Incredible Profitability as an Underdogs

Kansas vs. Providence Sweet 16 Odds: Friars Look to Continue Incredible Profitability as an Underdogs article feature image

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Kansas vs. Providence Odds

Kansas Odds-7
New Orleans Odds+7
DateFriday, March 25
Time7:30 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NCAA basketball odds here.

Fair or not, there has been a narrative surrounding the Providence Friars for the majority of the season that they are not as good as their record and they are just lucky in the close games.

The Friars are 27-5 on the season after winning their first two NCAA Tournament games. Providence has spent the second half of the season ranked inside the top 25 in the AP Poll but has received much less respect from the advanced metrics.

KenPom has had the Friars ranked anywhere from 33rd to 86th throughout the season. They are currently ranked 33rd, which is their highest ranking of the season. Bart Torvik has given them a little more respect — ranking them between 31st and 55th.

Sportsbooks rely on these metrics to help set their spreads. It's common knowledge that KenPom's FanMatch, where it predicts the final score of the game, is typically within a point or two of the spread.

So as Providence continues to outplay the metrics, it tends to cover spreads.

Ed Cooley and company are 19-13 ATS on the season and 2-0 ATS so far in the NCAA Tournament.

But it's the Friars' record as an underdog that is most impressive. They are 8-2 ATS when they close as an underdog. When the Friars are an underdog by five points or more, they are 4-0 on the season.

One of the reasons they have been so good as an underdog is they have been able to pull out close games. The Friars are 10-2 SU in games decided by five points or less.

They have an opportunity to continue those trends on Friday night. Providence opened as an 8-point underdog to Kansas in the Sweet 16. That line has already moved to 7.5 and 7 on most books.

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Nick Sterling
Jul 14, 2024 UTC