Saturday’s College Basketball Betting Previews: Kentucky-Louisville, Belmont-Purdue

Within college basketball's loaded slate on Saturday, Kentucky and Louisville renew one of the sport's best rivalries. Later on, an elite mid-major in Belmont travels to Purdue in a battle of two explosive offenses. Which sides present the best value? Let's breakdown the matchups.

Kentucky Wildcats at Louisville Cardinals

• Spread: Kentucky -2.5
• Over/Under: 147
• Time: 2 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN2

There's tremendous buildup to this contest, as expected. John Calipari and Chris Mack have never gone head-to-head in Mack's first nine seasons as a head coach at Xavier.

The Wildcats (5-5 against the spread), winners of eight of their past 10 duels against their in-state rival, are beginning to peak after a dominating win against North Carolina on Dec. 22.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals (5-5-2 ATS) have overachieved in what was presumed to be a rebuilding season in the wake of the Rick Pitino scandal.

Sharps are favoring Kentucky, which boasts a slight size advantage with Reid Travis (15.1 points per game) and P.J. Washington (13.3 ppg) leading the way.

While the Wildcats have amassed the third and 44th-highest Offensive and Defensive Rebounding Rate in Division I, respectively, the Cardinals own the ninth-best Defensive Rebounding Percentage and will make it tough on their foe's bigs to create second-chance opportunities.

The most underrated edge will come via Louisville's perimeter shooting (35.8%). Not only is Kentucky yielding the 26th-highest 3-point clip, but 42.2% of the Cardinals' attempts come from behind the arc.

They present five players who've generated at least a 37.9 3-point percentage, so expect Mack's unit to drive-and-kick often against the Wildcats' man-to-man look.

One of them is Jordan Nwora (17.8 PPG), who Mack compared to Trevon Bluiett (his former Musketeers sharpshooter) in the offseason. The 6-foot-8, 215-pound forward has improved his Effective Field Goal Percentage by 9.7% from his freshman campaign.

Turnovers should also play a critical role. Kentucky giving up just 0.87 Points Per Possession to UNC in its most recent affair overshadowed its own 18 turnovers.

Calipari's bunch has exhibited its youth throughout the campaign, with a 20.0% Turnover Rate. At the other end, Louisville has manufactured the 86th-lowest Turnover Percentage (17.4%) in DI, allowing it to control the tempo with its slower pace and by limiting the Wildcats' possessions.

According to Bet Labs, the Cardinals are 10-4-1 (71.4%) ATS when getting between 2.5 to 10 points, going back to last regular season. Take the home dog in what should be a raucous environment.

THE PICK: Louisville +2.5

Belmont Bruins at Purdue Boilermakers 

• Spread: Purdue -10
• Over/Under: 159.5
• Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FS1

The Bruins (5-4 ATS) getting that many points should be a criminal offense, especially against the Boilermakers (6-6 ATS). As it turns out, their offensive attack can burglarize the opposition.

Rick Byrd's squad has accumulated the 44th-highest eFG% (54.9%) in the nation, led by its 36.4% clip from the perimeter. Purdue has gotten blitzed from that vicinity, allowing the 45th-highest 3-point percentage (38.0%).

The Boilermakers can stroke it at the other end (37.5%), but getting into a track meet would benefit Belmont extensively, as it's producing the seventh-highest Adjusted Tempo.

Plus, the Bruins will showcase a slight size advantage vs. Purdue's primarily small-ball lineup, and they're shooting 55.1% inside the arc — the 59th-highest percentage in the nation. Look for them to play inside-out through the dribble drive with an offense that loves to get creative with its ball screen action, proving so yet again on a backdoor layup for its game-winner at UCLA on Dec. 15.

Their height edge will also serve of high importance at the other end, as the Boilermakers rank No. 31 in Offensive Rebounding Percentage (35.3%) across DI. But they've been out-rebounded in three of their past four contests against major conference opponents while Belmont has tallied the 36th-highest Defensive Rebounding Rate (24.3%).

Flustering Carsen Edwards (26.0 ppg), who's often forced his offense this season, with guards Kevin McClain and Grayson Murphy's ball pressure will be key as well.

Belmont is 6-0 ATS as an underdog, dating back to last regular season, per Bet Labs. Let's continue the theme, shall we?

THE PICK: Bruins +10