College Basketball Odds, Pick for Kentucky vs LSU

Below, we have college basketball odds and a pick for Kentucky vs LSU. 

Two SEC teams that are flying high will do battle on ESPN on Wednesday.

Kentucky is coming off arguably its most important – and impressive – win of the season on Saturday. The Wildcats went into The Jungle and handed Auburn its first home loss of the season. In fact, the Tigers had not won a game by less than 11 all season.

On the other side of the court is LSU, which pulled an upset at South Carolina to keep the most meager of NCAA at-large hopes alive by a thread. At just 13-12 overall, the Bayou Bengals are nowhere near the cutline yet. But if they knock off Kentucky, they could be favored in every game down the stretch.

A 19-12 finish could absolutely sneak LSU into the Big Dance.

Who will respond best to success? The young but talented Wildcats after John Calipari puffed his chest out to the media on Saturday night? Or the home Tigers, who have already lost four times at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center this year?

Big Blue Nation’s massive victory on the Plains on Saturday was perhaps most notable in how it happened. This Kentucky team has been a transition monster, playing at a turbo tempo and punishing foes with devastating guard play. The offense has been UK’s clear bright spot.

In fact, Kentucky has played just two games below 69 possessions all year. It's 1-1 in those contests: a home win over Texas A&M-Commerce and a road loss at South Carolina.

Instead, at Auburn, Kentucky won with defense in a half-court game. Surprisingly, Auburn seemed hesitant to play at Kentucky’s pace, content to pick apart the Wildcats’ weak half-court defense.

But even without Tre Mitchell, Kentucky held Auburn to an offensive rating of 86.8 – the fourth-best performance of the season for the Wildcats’ defense.

That was the second straight stellar defensive performance for the Wildcats, who held Ole Miss to an even-worse 85.1 O-Rating last Wednesday. Is that the new normal for the Cats? If so, watch out, because Kentucky’s offense is a volcano constantly ready to erupt.

The devil may be in the details, though. The Rebels and Tigers combined to shoot 9-of-44 (20.5%) from beyond the arc. ShotQuality graded both games as losses for the Wildcats, meaning that the defense may not be undergoing the renaissance that it seems on the surface.

LSU has been an enigma in Matt McMahon’s second season at the helm. The Tigers got down 44-20 at home to Nicholls in the second game of the season, ultimately losing 68-66 in a nail-biter.

That seemingly indicated another lost campaign after McMahon’s 1-17 SEC debut in 2022-23. However, two impressive wins in the Charleston Classic stirred optimism, and getting boomerang point guard transfer Jalen Cook eligible via the two-time transfer waiver buoyed that hope – as did a 2-0 start to league play.

Then, the struggles returned, with LSU losing seven out of nine games, as the Tigers’ defense failed to rise to the occasion against stiff competition. Cook’s effectiveness waned as he got banged up, and he actually missed LSU’s marquee victory at South Carolina over the weekend.

Cook’s status is TBD for this Kentucky showdown in Baton Rouge. He'll test a lingering leg injury in warmups to determine if he'll give it a go.

Per CBB Analytics, LSU is five points better per 100 possessions when Cook plays. Admittedly, that's a narrow gap, but his shot creation and ball security are major boosts for a team that lacks both.

Without him, power guard Trae Hannibal will continue as a fill-in distributor. That amplifies the importance of the frontcourt trio of Will Baker, Jalen Reed and Jordan Wright.

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The key determination to make here is whether Kentucky’s defensive progress is real. If so, the under could be a tantalizing bet.

Cook’s status is also pivotal to the total aspect of this game. Again, per CBB Analytics, LSU plays more than four possessions faster per 40 minutes when he's on the court. Without him, LSU may not want to get into an all-out track meet with Kentucky’s deep stable of guards.

However, with questions around both, the total angle is too murky.

Instead, I'm looking at home 'dog LSU.

It's hard to imagine Kentucky’s youthful bunch will be as locked in after such a massive effort at Auburn with College GameDay on the scene.

Mitchell may also still be out with his shoulder issue. His veteran presence in the frontcourt has been beneficial on both ends.

Inconsistent LSU is not a fun team to trust, but at home against the conference’s premier basketball brand, I expect an all-out effort and an awesome atmosphere.

If Kentucky can't fully match that intensity, the Tigers can steal one in Baton Rouge.

Pick: LSU +5 (Play to +3.5)