Kentucky vs. Ole Miss Odds & Pick: Pair of Poor Offenses Equals Likely Under

Kentucky vs. Ole Miss Odds & Pick: Pair of Poor Offenses Equals Likely Under article feature image
Credit:

Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Kentucky’s Olivier Sarr.

  • (1) Kentucky and Ole Miss meet in a late-season clash between two struggling teams.
  • The Rebels still have an outside shot of making the tourney, while the Wildcats will need to win the SEC Tournament.
  • Tanner McGrath previews the meeting below, and has his eye on the under.

Kentucky vs. Ole Miss Odds


Kentucky Odds +1.5
Ole Miss Odds -1.5
Moneyline +100 / -118
Over/Under 130.5
Time | TV Tuesday, 9 p.m. ET | TV
Odds as of Monday evening and via FanDuel.

As Kentucky and Ole Miss prepare to face off Tuesday night, both teams are desperately searching for ways to make the NCAA Tournament.

Ole Miss is on life support, but still has an outside chance at an at-large bid. It needs to win out and have some success in the SEC Tournament.

Kentucky, who are 8-14 overall and 7-8 in conference play, have no choice but to win the SEC Tournament if it wants a bid. However, the Wildcats did just grab a 15-point road win over Tennessee.

Unfortunately for the Wildcats and Rebels, both teams are coming off a loss. Kentucky lost by four vs. Florida while Ole Miss lost by five at Vanderbilt.

So, which team will bounce-back? In a matchup between two subpar teams, this is an ideal spot to target the total.

The Defenses

Kentucky and Ole Miss are both much better defensively than offensively. However, the Wildcats and Rebels succeed successfully in different ways.

Kentucky excels at interior defense. The Wildcats are first in the conference in defensive two-point percentage and second in the conference in defensive effective field goal percentage. Additionally, at a whopping 16%, Kentucky is first in the conference and second in the country in block percentage.

The Wildcats can thank Isaiah Jackson for its interior dominance. The freshman big man is averaging a staggering 2.7 blocks in just 20.4 minutes per game this season.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss excels at forcing turnovers. The Rebels are 13th in the country and first in the conference in steal percentage. Ole Miss is also eighth in the country in overall turnover percentage, at 24%.

The Rebels’ defensive shooting percentages aren’t excellent. In fact, they’re 10th in the conference in defensive effective field goal percentage, and teams are shooting 37.9% from 3 against them this season—which is the worst mark in the SEC.

But despite the poor splits, the Rebels are still allowing the fewest points per game in the conference. Ole Miss is allowing just 66.9 points per game in the SEC this season.

The Offenses

Offensively, Kentucky and Ole Miss leave a lot to be desired.

Both teams score fewer than 70 points per game. Kentucky is ninth in the conference in points per game this season while Ole Miss is 12th in the conference.

Both teams are terribly inefficient on that end, too.

Kentucky is 12th in the conference in effective field goal percentage and dead last in the conference in two-point percentage. However, thanks to being first in the conference in free-throw percentage, Kentucky is seventh in the conference overall in offensive efficiency.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss is 11th in the conference in offensive efficiency. The Rebels are 13th in the conference in effective field goal percentage and 12th in the conference in three-point percentage (a measly 27.8%).

Brandon Boston is Kentucky’s leading scorer this season, but he’s only scoring 12 points per game and only shooting 36% from the field. Additionally, Davion Mintz is the Wildcats’ second-leading scorer, averaging 11 points per game and only shooting 38% from the field.

Meanwhile, senior guard Devontae Shuler leads the Ole Miss offensive attack. He’s scoring 16 points per game on 40.7% shooting from the field.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

So far this season, Kentucky is scoring 69 points per game overall, but just 67 points per game on the road. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are allowing 70 points per game overall, but just 67 points per game on the road.

Both points help explain how Kentucky is 6-3 to the Under on the road this year while being just 4-6 to the Under at home.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss is 17-6 to the Under overall this season and 9-3 to the Under at home. In fact, Ole Miss is allowing just 63 points per game overall, but just 60 points per game at home.

130 points is a low total in college basketball. However, both these teams are playing fairly good defensively while playing incredibly bad offensively.

Additionally, Kentucky’s road games average out to be lower-scoring than its home games, while Ole Miss’s home games average out to be lower-scoring than its road games.

I am trusting the trends and the averages in this spot, but I wouldn’t play the under much lower than this.

Pick: Under 130.5

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