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Louisiana vs. Georgia State Odds, Picks, Predictions: How to Bet the Sun Belt Conference Championship (March 7)

Louisiana vs. Georgia State Odds, Picks, Predictions: How to Bet the Sun Belt Conference Championship (March 7) article feature image

Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Corey Allen

  • Louisiana and Georgia State meet for the Sun Belt title on Monday night with a spot in the NCAA Tournament on the line.
  • The Ragin' Cajuns were +2000 to win the tournament while the Panthers were the preseason favorites to earn the conference's auto-bid.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a pick from our college basketball betting analyst.

Louisiana vs. Georgia State Odds

Monday, March 7
7 p.m. ET
Louisiana Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-110o / -110u
Georgia State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-110o / -110u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

An NCAA tournament berth is on the line as Louisiana matches up with Georgia State in the Sun Belt Tournament Championship.  It’s only appropriate that the championship game will be featured with the two hottest teams in the conference.

Georgia State has won 11 of its last 12 games, including nine straight. The Ragin’ Cajuns are the lowest seed in conference history to play for a Sun Belt Tournament Championship. They have won six of their last seven matchups with the sole loss coming in the season finale to … Georgia State.

Louisiana is the Cinderella Story of the conference this season. The Ragin’ Cajuns were +2000 to win the title before the tournament started and are just one win away from completing that feat.

The Panthers will look to complete a season sweep of the Ragin’ Cajuns and punch their ticket to toe Big Dance.

Ragin’ Cajuns Look to Complete Improbably Run

Louisiana hopes to turn its unlikely run into an NCAA tournament bid. The Ragin’ Cajuns are dangerous as they’re playing with house money and have nothing to lose.

The Louisiana program utilizes its deep bench and ranks among the top 10 in bench minutes, according to KenPom. That depth could be an important factor against tired legs with both programs playing their third game in as many days. The last time Georgia State played on back-to-back days it needed overtime to survive High Point.

The Ragin’ Cajuns’ offense is reliant on the two 6-foot-11 big men, Jordan Brown and Theor Akwuba. Brown averages 15 points and nine rebounds a contest. He single-handedly dominated Texas State in the quarterfinals, scoring 31 points on 12-of-20 from the field. Akwuba is putting up nine points and eight rebounds per game while swatting nearly two shots per contest, which ranks third in the conference.

The defense has stepped up the intensity since the conference tournament begun. In their three matchups, the Ragin Cajuns have held opponents to an astounding 33% from the field. They’ve allowed just 26% on 3-point attempts.

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Panthers Led by Seniors, Defense

Georgia State was the heavy favorite to win the conference in the preseason. The Panthers stumbled out of the gate, winning just six of their first 15 games, but eventually righted the ship and put together victories in 11 of their last 12 games.

The offense is spearheaded by the triple threat of seniors Corey Allen, Kane Williams and Justin Roberts.

Williams is the slasher for the Panthers, averaging 13 points and 3.9 assists per game. He’s made his living getting to the charity stripe, attempting the second-most free throws in the conference — and hitting 80%.

Allen and Roberts are the main shooting threats, combining to hit 34% of their 302 attempts from deep this season. Allen carried the Panthers past Appalachian State last game, hitting 6-of-9 from downtown and scoring a season-high 29 points.

Georgia State relied on its defense to help revitalize the season. The Panthers own the best adjusted defensive efficiency ranking in the conference and haven’t allowed over one PPP in 13 straight games.

The Panthers hold opponents to just 45% on 2-point field goal attempts, which ranks in the top-25 in the country. Rob Lanier’s defense forces turnovers on 23% of defensive possessions, which is 17th nationally. That will be crucial against a Louisiana offense that has been careless with the basketball all season.

Louisiana vs. Georgia State Betting Pick

I anticipate this to be a low-scoring matchup with how dominant each defense has looked down the stretch. Louisiana has held its opponents to 33% shooting throughout the tournament. Georgia State owns the top defensive efficiency rating in the conference and scoring inside the paint against the program has proven to be a difficult task.

With both defenses owning a slight edge over the opposing offenses, the importance of every possession will be critical in this matchup. Georgia State forces turnovers at a top-20 rate in the country. Louisiana coughs the ball up and average of 16 times per game, which ranks 340th in the nation. The Ragin’ Cajuns turned the ball over 37 times in the two meetings with Georgia State.

The Panthers found a way to win both matchups against Louisiana this season. Louisiana hit 12-of-22 (54%) from 3-point territory in the first game at home, but Georgia State still clawed its way to victory.

That’s going to be exactly what happens in the trilogy between these two programs. Turnovers will prove to be pivotal, and the red-hot Georgia State Panthers will punch their ticket to the NCAA tournament.

Pick: Georgia State -3 (Play up to -4.5)

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