Louisville vs. Duke Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Blue Devils Bounce Back After Shocking Loss?

Louisville vs. Duke Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Blue Devils Bounce Back After Shocking Loss? article feature image
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Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Krzyzewski speaks with Cassius Stanley (2)

  • Duke is an 8-point betting favorite over Louisville in the latest odds for Saturday's top 15 ACC matchup.
  • The Blue Devils are coming off a shocking loss to Clemson in which they were an 11-point favorite, but should return to Cameron Indoor Stadium with a renewed defensive focus.
  • Get our experts' Duke vs. Louisville picks below.

Louisville vs. Duke Odds

  • Odds: Duke -8
  • Total: 138.5
  • Time: 6 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Location: Durham, N.C.

Odds as of Saturday morning and via BetMGM, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.


Duke’s shocking loss to Clemson earlier this week takes a little shine off this matchup. But it’s a huge ACC tilt nonetheless.

Louisville will be looking to win just its second Quad 1 game of the season when it goes to Cameron Indoor on Saturday night in primetime.

The Cardinals have bounced back after two straight losses over New Year’s and taken care of business in their last three.

Can they cover the big spread tonight?

How Duke-Louisville Odds Have Moved

The market has moved in Duke’s favor to -8 at most books after opening -7. The Blue Devils are getting 65% of the money in this matchup.

With 66% of the bets and 81% of the money on the over, it’s gone up from 136 to 137.5. — Steve Petrella

 

When Duke Has the Ball

The Cardinals play stellar defense, 18th in the country in defensive efficiency and 11th in opponent 2-point percentage.

The issue is defending the glass, as Duke is No. 6 in the nation in offensive rebounding. That is a big advantage over a Louisville defense that is averaging just 26.4 rebounds per game for a rank of 97th.

Louisville may be incapable of forcing takeaways, as well. The Cardinals are 316th in defensive steal percentage, an area Duke could be taken advantage of by a team in the future. — Collin Wilson

When Louisville Has the Ball

Experience is certainly on the Louisville side, as Jordan Nwora and Steven Enoch lead a roster that is familiar with Duke. Last season, the Cardinals suffered a 2-point loss to Duke after leading late into the game.

Louisville must stay hot from beyond the arc, shooting 40% or better the past four games with a conference percentage of 44%, but that number is unsustainable in the long run.

Duke ranks 62nd in defensive perimeter defense, which should be enough for Louisville to hit some buckets. The Cardinals generate much of their offense from beyond the arc.

The biggest area of concern is the transition game, as Duke is top 15 in block and steal percentage.

Louisville is 287th in tempo, but may look to increase their pace to avoid Duke’s athleticism in the half court. — Collin Wilson

Our Picks

Mike Randle: Louisville +8

I realize this is a prime bounceback spot for Duke after that inexplicable loss at Clemson. But this is a young Duke team that will still be without key reserve Wendell Moore Jr. (7.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg) against a dominant front line of 6-foot-10 Steven Enoch, 6-foot-11 Malik Williams, and All-American candidate Jordan Nwora.

The Blue Devils shoot an impressive 36.9% from 3P, but the Cardinals hold opponents to under 30% from beyond the arc. Duke is also one of the worst teams in the country at the free throw line, shooting only 66.5% as a team.

The shorthanded Blue Devils were outrebounded 35-27 at Clemson and will face a similar problem against Louisville that ranks 58th in offensive rebounding percentage.

If Duke center Vernon Carey fails to dominate, the Cardinals will be able to limit Duke’s offense and keep this game within striking distance even.

I’m taking the Cardinals +8 on a line that could potentially reach double-digits by tip-off due to the national Duke betting bias. — Mike Randle

Stuckey: Under 137.5 small

I think this line is spot on, although I do think Duke is a solid ML parlay piece. (Keep in mind Duke has been horrible from the line, which could open up the backdoor for Louisville late if the margin is hovering around 7-10). Coming back to Cameron after a bad loss in conference is usually where the Blue Devils excel.

Plus, it’s a pretty good matchup for Coach K’s bunch. They have the size inside to contend with the formidable Louisville frontcourt and the style of defense on the perimeter to give the Louisville offense fits.

Something has just been off with the Louisville offense since a hot start. One of the culprits has been inconsistent guard play and the other is teams figuring out how to defend Chris Mack’s sets. If you can play solid pressure defense on the perimeter, you can really disrupt the Louisville motion offense. And that’s exactly what Duke does on the defensive end.

I also think the under is worth a look. I expect a spirited effort from the Duke defense (which matches up well) after getting shredded in an unfocused effort against Clemson.

The Louisville defense is also its strength and should travel to Cameron. Plus, both teams are due for a little shooting regression after red hot starts to conference play from deep. The Cardinals are shooting a astronomical 44.4% from 3 in ACC play to lead the conference and Duke ranks second at 40.7%.

I was hoping for 140, but 137.5 is still worth a small investment. — Stuckey

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