Saturday’s Power Rating Values: Public Is Too High on Darling Murray State


Photo credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ja Morant

Mar 23, 2019, 05:40 PM EDT
  • Not sure if you should pull the trigger on that three-team moneyline parlay in Saturday's NCAA Tournament? We can help.
  • Below, you can download a sheet and plug in your sportsbook's spreads, moneyline and parlay values to see how they align with our game projections.
  • Easily view the projected edge for each game and take advantage of each slate's best betting spots.

With our awesome app and tools, we try to make sports betting as non-overwhelming as possible. But it still has its moments for all of us: You like that spread at +7 with -110 juice, but is it still viable at +8 and -120 juice?

In the ramp up to this year’s NCAA Tournament, we’ve released a ton of data, including proprietary power ratings that have allowed us to give “true” odds on every team to win each game and thus the “true” spread on it.

So we thought it might help if we gave out a handy sheet (download it below) that has our win probabilities built in, and at your own leisure, you can insert the spreads, moneylines and parlay values at your own sportsbooks and see how they stack up to our projections. It’s another way to make betting less of a math headache.

Below you’ll find a sheet with three tabs, one for spreads, one for moneylines and another with a parlay calculator. Again, just insert your book’s numbers and we’ll spit out the projected edge. Yes, it’s literally that simple.

But first, let me highlight a couple Saturday spots in which there’s likely an edge for everyone. I’ll be doing this for each day’s slate of games throughout the Big Dance.

Biggest Betting Edges for Saturday’s NCAA Tournament

The three biggest edges in spread betting currently are as follows:

  • Florida State -4.5 (projected spread of -7.5, 8.4% edge)
  • Michigan -6.5 (projected spread of -8.5, 4.8% edge)
  • Maryland +3 (projected spread of +1, 4.8% edge)

There are even bigger edges (see the sheet for those) in betting the moneylines, including that Florida State game. The market consensus is Florida State -200 (66.7% implied probability), and our power ratings say the Seminoles are 76.8% likely to win — a 10.1% edge. It seems the public really loves future NBA star Ja Morant and his Racers team.

And if you really like betting parlays, there are some potential edges there today as well.

For example, we have the “true” odds of Florida State and Michigan both winning at 63%, which could be a deal depending on your book’s parlay odds.

There are many more edges, so download the sheet below. Talk to you guys Sunday.

Note: Kentucky-Wofford is absent from the sheet due to the injury to Wildcats star PJ Washington.

NCAA Tournament Saturday Betting Slate: Best Spread, Moneyline and Parlay Values

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
Follow Bryan Mears on Twitter

Top Stories