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March Madness Odds: Why the Final Four Has Historically Sided with Favorites

March Madness Odds: Why the Final Four Has Historically Sided with Favorites article feature image

Photo by C. Morgan Engel/NCAA Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Adama Sonogo.

March Madness is typically full of upsets and getting comfortable expecting the unexpected.

And boy, has it delivered. As we head into Final Four weekend, there aren’t any Nos. 1 or 2 seeds still alive in the NCAA Tournament. There have been upsets galore and two of the Final Four teams come from non-major conferences.

But the madness could be over. Historical data suggests that the unexpected in the NCAA Tournament occurs in the first four rounds. Typically, once we reach the Final Four, the games can actually be a little chalky.

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In 17 of the last 18 Final Fours, one of the top two favorites entering has gone on to win it all. Connecticut was the lone team to win the National Championship without being one of the top two favorites entering the weekend (in 2014).

UConn enters the Final Four as the clear betting favorite. The Huskies are currently -125 to win it all at BetMGM.

“Bettors are showing strong support for UConn, and the Huskies winning it all could become a bad outcome for the sportsbook,” BetMGM Sports Trader Seamus Magee said.

UConn is already a 5.5-point favorite over Miami and would likely be a heavy favorite in the National Championship.

Behind UConn, San Diego State has the next shortest odds to win the NCAA Tournament, currently +400 at BetMGM. Miami is close behind at +475.

Florida Atlantic, who entered the tournament as a No. 9 seed, has the longest odds to win it all at +625.

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