NCAAB Odds, Pick for Minnesota vs Indiana

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are 14-1 against the spread on the season, which seems pretty outrageous. But they have a true test on the road Friday at one of the toughest places to play: Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Indiana.

Outside of wins over Michigan on the road and Nebraska at home, Minnesota’s ATS record is not all too surprising. The Golden Gophers are certainly better than the market has indicated, but Big Ten road games are tough. Since 2015, Big Ten home teams have an ATS record of 581-489-21.

The Golden Gophers are a pretty balanced team. They shoot north of 36% from 3-point land and above 57% from 2-point land. That said, they rank outside the top 100 in both Open 3 Rate and Rim and 3 Rate, per Shot Quality. The Hoosiers, meanwhile, rank in the top 80 defensively in both, so Indiana should have the defensive antidote to slow down Minnesota.

The Golden Gophers rebound well on the offensive end, and Indiana ranks below 200th in rebounding on both ends of the floor. Look for Minnesota to have some put-back opportunities, but this may be one of its only edges in this game. Indiana's seven-footer Kel’el Ware is a great rebounder, so he may negate Minnesota’s impact on the glass in this matchup.

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One major issue for the Golden Gophers could be defending in the post. The Hoosiers have a tendency to shoot the ball from inside the arc and rank fifth in the country in post-up frequency. Ware will again be a massive strength for the Hoosiers here, so he should rack up points in this one.

Indiana is also far better at getting to the free-throw line. Minnesota ranks near 200th in free-throw attempt rate and is shooting below 69% from the stripe. Indiana is also shooting poorly from the line, but the Hoosiers get there more often.

Indiana does not launch many threes. The Hoosiers rank in the bottom 25 in 3-point attempt rate, but they do have some weapons from deep. Mackenzie Mgbako can get hot occasionally while Malik Reneau and Xavier Johnson can also be threats. That might come into play in this one because the Golden Gophers leave plenty of open 3s to opponents. The Hoosiers should hit enough shots from outside to make a difference and cut into what would usually be an advantage for Minnesota.

This game comes down to home-court advantage more than anything. Minnesota also ranks 347th in strength of schedule compared to Indiana ranking 59th. The Hoosiers have played tougher teams, and at least at Assembly Hall, they have shown they can compete. After all, Indiana nearly upset Kansas in Bloomington in mid-December.

If Indiana can cut into the margins from 3-point range and manufacture post-up opportunities for Ware, it should be a victory. Bet the Hoosiers in this game at -3.5, and play them to -4.5.

Pick: Indiana -3.5 (Play to -4.5)

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