NC State vs Purdue Player Prop | Expert Pick for Final Four

I'm 24-10 and +12.05 units on player props since the beginning of the NCAA Tournament.

Let's keep the momentum rolling in the Final Four with a pick I like in Saturday's first game: NC State vs. Purdue.

Here's my player prop pick for the Boilermakers' Trey Kaufman-Renn.

NC State vs Purdue Player Prop

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Trey Kaufman-Renn has only cleared 6.5 points in three of his 10 games, and the three times he did were either blowouts or games that went to overtime.

Typically, Kaufman-Renn is going to play just around 15 minutes and stay under this number. So long as we can avoid a blowout or overtime here, he should stay under yet again.

Kaufman-Renn isn't much of a threat from 3-point range and is only around a 50% shooter from the free-throw line — and he doesn't get there much, either.

Therefore, he may need to take around six shots in order to clear this number. It's hard to see that happening if he only plays around 15 minutes, which we should expect in such a big game.

I'm projecting Kaufman-Renn closer to 5.5 points on Saturday against NC State, and that one point in this type of market is massive because I have it being closer to a 63% chance that he stays under 6.5 points.

Pick: Trey Kaufman-Renn Under 6.5 Points (-120)