NCAA Tournament Betting Tip: Good Defensive Teams Are Undervalued

NCAA Tournament Betting Tip: Good Defensive Teams Are Undervalued article feature image
Credit:

Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Texas Tech Red Raiders forward Tariq Owens

  • College basketball bettors favor offense over defense in the NCAA Tournament.
  • Using Bet Labs, we share a profitable against-the-spread system that exploits this tendency in March Madness.

Defense wins championships but offense is king — at least among recreational bettors. College basketball teams that have large scoring outbursts are heavily bet in their next game as the public expects the team to keep getting buckets.

Since 2005, there have been 390 NCAA Tournament games featuring one squad that scored at least 75 points in its previous game. The team coming off the monster offensive performance received a majority of spread tickets in 96.4% of those matchups.

The same can’t be said for a team following a strong defensive showing. In that same span, a tournament team that held a previous opponent to fewer than 60 points received a majority of bets in the next game just 45.5% of the time.

Bettors buy into teams off big offensive games but ignore squads that dominated with defense. This creates an opportunity for savvy bettors.

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