Defense wins championships but offense is king — at least among recreational bettors. College basketball teams that have large scoring outbursts are heavily bet in their next game as the public expects the team to keep getting buckets.
Since 2005, there have been 390 NCAA Tournament games featuring one squad that scored at least 75 points in its previous game. The team coming off the monster offensive performance received a majority of spread tickets in 96.4% of those matchups.
The same can’t be said for a team following a strong defensive showing. In that same span, a tournament team that held a previous opponent to fewer than 60 points received a majority of bets in the next game just 45.5% of the time.
Bettors buy into teams off big offensive games but ignore squads that dominated with defense. This creates an opportunity for savvy bettors.
According to Bet Labs, teams that held their previous opponents to fewer than 60 points have gone 290-248-12 (53.9%) against the spread (ATS) in the NCAA Tournament since 2005. Defensive teams that are underdogs offer the most value.
Underdogs off a strong defensive game have gone 168-123-6 (57.7%) ATS since 2005. With defense often being undervalued by casual bettors, oddsmakers are less likely to inflate the lines making it easier for defensive teams to cover.
This betting strategy has been consistent, returning a profit in 10 of the past 14 tournaments. Here are matches for the Elite Eight. If you’d like to receive game matches for the rest of the tournament try Bet Labs for a month.
- Texas Tech +4 vs. Gonzaga (6:09 p.m. ET, TBS)
