NCAA Tournament Futures: Why Playing ‘the Field’ Is a Smart Bet … And the Best Teams to Fade

NCAA Tournament Futures: Why Playing ‘the Field’ Is a Smart Bet … And the Best Teams to Fade article feature image
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Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Duke Blue Devils guard Jordan Goldwire

  • Oddsmakers are offering prop bets on 16 teams to win the NCAA Tournament while also giving gamblers an option to wager on the field.
  • Using The Action Network's simulations, let's determine the best way to fade overvalued teams like Duke and Tennessee.

Selection Sunday is just around the corner and several teams are locks to make the NCAA Tournament.

Virginia (27-2), for example, could lose its regular season finale on Saturday and get bounced in the first game of the ACC tournament and still have fewer losses than Kentucky (25-5), a current 1-seed.

As such, oddsmakers are offering prop bets on 16 of the best teams in the country to cut down the nets during March Madness, while also giving gamblers an option to wager on the field. In proposition bets, "the field" refers to an accumulation of all the teams that are not listed specifically.

The table below displays the current odds, along with the latest probabilities from our simulations, which uses Joe Lunardi’s most recent Bracketology predictions as the bracket.

We can identify bets with positive expected value by converting the team's odds or field future price into an implied probability and comparing it to our simulations.

Based on our model, these are the field bets offering the most value:

The Field vs. Duke

  • Current odds: -240, Implied Probability: 70.6%
  • The fields wins the tournament 72.7% of the time

Zion Williamson has been out since he was hurt in Duke’s loss to North Carolina on Feb. 21. The Blue Devils are 3-2 in the games that their superstar has missed and could easily have a losing record if Wake Forest’s last second shot on Tuesday doesn’t roll out.

Coach K expects that Zion Williamson will be ready for the ACC Tournament and presumably be 100% healthy when March Madness tips but there are no guarantees. And even if the freshman sensation and projected first overall pick in the NBA draft is on the court, Duke has a history of stunning losses in the Big Dance.

Field vs. Tennessee

  • Current odds: -1600, Implied Probability: 94.1%
  • The field wins the tournament 96.4% of the time

The Vols have the statistical profile of a national champion, but they have a few glaring weaknesses that could prove costly in the NCAA tournament.

Tennessee is a perfect 18-0 at home this season. Unfortunately, the NCAA tournament won’t take place Knoxville.

In the three losses away from home, Rick Barnes’ team has shot poorly from behind the arc (combined 22-for-74, 29.7%) and got into foul trouble. In Vols' 27 wins this season, they are averaging 16.8 fouls but have committed 24.0 fouls in their three losses.

Poor shooting and foul trouble can sink any team, even a national title contender.

Team Futures

Betting against Duke and Tennessee are the sharpest field wagers but the greatest value lies with Gonzaga (+625) and Virginia (+720) to win it all. We recommended betting the Zags and Cavaliers here and here. The odds for these teams continue to shrink but the value remains.

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Rick Rockwell
Mar 27, 2024 UTC