NCAA Tournament Player Prop Picks: 3 Bets for Miami vs. Kansas, Including David McCormack and Ochai Agbaji (Sunday, March 27)
Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: David McCormack (33) of the Kansas Jayhawks.
Two of the four teams playing today will earn berths in the 2022 Final Four in New Orleans, LA to join the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils and No. 2 Villanova Wildcats.
There's little doubt that the public's focus will be on the latter matchup between this year's Cinderella darlings — the No. 15 Saint Peter's Peacocks — and the surging No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels.
However, in the player props market, our college basketball betting staff is heavily targeting the first of today's matchups — No. 10 Miami vs. No. 1 Kansas, which tips off at 2:20 p.m. ET.
Three player prop bets stand out from Sunday afternoon's Elite 8 matchup, including picks for Jordan Miller (Miami), David McCormack (Kansas) and Ochai Agbaji (Kansas).
How did our betting analysts identify these specific prop bets as the most valuable on today's board? It all starts with our Action Labs Player Prop Tool, which compares our NCAAB projections to props posted at a variety of sportsbooks:
Jordan Miller Under 12.5 Points (-105)
By Doug Ziefel
Throughout the 2022 NCAA Tournament, Jordan Miller has been a key part of the Hurricanes four-out / one-in offense. However, he is likely to have a tough go of it against the No. 1 seed Kansas Jayhawks.
Miller will be guarded by Jalen Wilson, who is more of a wing in terms of size and ability. In addition, Miller will be the smaller man by one inch and 30 pounds. This size disadvantage will significantly hamper Miller's ability to get inside and convert high-percentage buckets, which is his game.
Furthermore, this number is a bit inflated due to his recent 16-point performance against Iowa State in the Sweet 16. Miller only averages 10.3 points and seven shot attempts per game. Therefore, his usage and scoring output will likely regress in this matchup.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Miller to score 10.3 points in this contest, which gives us a 10.6% edge versus the current line.
David McCormack Over 7.5 Rebounds (+105)
McCormack hasn’t been racking up rebounds lately. He recorded just two against Providence, six against Creighton and seven against Texas Southern.
But all of those teams are more adept at crashing the glass than Miami.
Among Division-I teams, Miami currently ranks 319th in offensive rebound percentage and 271st in defensive rebound percentage. The only player who is nationally ranked in offensive or defensive rebounding rate is Jordan Miller, who is 6-foot-7 and grabs under six boards per game.
This could be a good buy-low spot for McCormack, who is still one of the elite rebounders in the game. He finished fourth nationally in offensive rebounding rate this year as one of the few players who could keep up with Oscar Tshiebwe on that end.
After a few down games, I’m expecting a big bounce-back performance on the glass from McCormack.
Ochai Agbaji Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-150)
Miami is aggressive on defense. The Hurricanes try to force steals to create transition opportunities — something they’re very adept at.
However, that aggressive defense comes at the expense of solid shot contests. The Canes are 230th in opponent 3-point rate (39.1% 3PA/FGA) and 237th in 3-point defense (34.5 3P% allowed).
And Agbaji will take advantage of that. He’s hit at least two 3s in 27 games this season. And because he hasn’t shot well from deep during the tournament (2-for-12), that means we get the unique opportunity of betting a line this low.
This is still a player who has taken 240 3PA this year and has made them at a 39.3% clip. Don’t undervalue Agbaji because he’s on a cold streak.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Agbaji for 2.6 3PM on Sunday, giving us a 13% edge over the line being offered