NCAA Tournament Player Props: 2 Bets for North Carolina vs. Baylor, Including Armando Bacot & Adam Flagler
John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: Adam Flagler.
Welcome to the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
No. 8 seed North Carolina and No. 1 Baylor will kick off Saturday’s second-round action with a tip-off at 12 p.m. ET. With only two games taking place before 5:15 p.m. ET, our staff is focusing on two player props for the opening game.
Armando Bacot and Adam Flagler have both played key roles for their squads this season, and now our team of player props writers are looking to cash in on some of their biggest strengths in the court.
Below, we’ll use the Action Labs Player Prop Tool to compare our NCAAB projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks.
Armando Bacot Over 13.5 Rebounds
It may seem like a big number, but I like over 13.5 rebounds for Armando Bacot against Baylor.
The talented big has exceeded this number on the glass six times in his last 10 games.
And while his ability is tantalizing, it’s his availability that I’m more interested in. If you take out his last performance in which he was pulled during a blowout of Marquette, he’s averaging close to 34 minutes per game. This is a combination of avoiding foul trouble and Hubert Davis trusting him when he does pick up a few early fouls.
Baylor is also suspect in the middle, checking in 231st nationally in defensive rebounding percentage. The loss of Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua has been felt acutely in this element of the game, with the stout power forward still sidelined with a knee injury.
Opponents are snagging 8.5 offensive boards per game against Baylor, and this is where this bet will be won or lost.
One final encouraging sign for over in this spot has been Baylor’s performance against other top rebounders. Texas’ Christian Bishop nearly doubled his rebounding average in their last meeting (11 rebounds), and David McCormick from Kansas snagged 13 rebounds against the Bears.
Shop around for the best number or juice on this play. I would play it up to -140 at 13.5 or up to 14.5 at -110 odds.
Adam Flagler Over 2.5 3-Pointers (+135)
In LJ Cryer’s absence, we have seen Adam Flagler rise to the occasion and become the true second option on this potent Baylor offense.
Where Flagler does a majority of his damage is from behind the arc. He is a 39% 3-point shooter, but is not afraid to take them, and will only take more once they start to fall.
He averages about six 3-point attempts per game, but we may see more out of him here given the matchup.
The Tar Heels have been burned from deep all season. They are 237th in 3-point percentage allowed and surrender two percent more points from beyond the arc than the national average.
Our Action Labs projections have him slated to drain 3.4 of his attempts in this one. That’s a tremendous edge on this plus-money play.