National Championship Player Props, Odds: 3 Picks for Alex Karaban, Andre Jackson Jr., Matt Bradley

National Championship Player Props, Odds: 3 Picks for Alex Karaban, Andre Jackson Jr., Matt Bradley article feature image
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Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: San Diego State’s Matt Bradley.

Folks, we made it. After all the madness, only two teams remain. While this has been one of the most entertaining tournaments with upsets galore, the prop market has been consistently presenting edges.

With that said, let's dive into our top three player props and end the season on a high note, with all odds presented by BetMGM.

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Matt Bradley Under 18.5 Pts + Rbs + Asts (-120)

Matt Bradley is the Aztecs' leading scorer and is a big reason they've made it this far. He spurred San Diego State's comeback against FAU, going off for 21 points while hauling in six rebounds.

However, that performance was an outlier from what we've seen from him both in this tournament and throughout the season. On the season, Bradley averages 12.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists.

Added up, that gives us an average PRA of 18.6. In the tournament, his scoring has dropped and rebounds have increased slightly, but his PRA average for the tournament sits at 17.4.

Now he's going to face a stout defensive team in UConn that's excellent at contesting midrange and perimeter shots. Those are two areas where Bradley likes to operate from, so we should expect him to be relatively quiet offensively.

On top of that, UConn is an excellent offensive rebounding team, and it will limit Bradley's ability to grab defensive boards.

With Bradley projected to struggle in two major categories, his under of the PRA combo is a strong angle.


Andre Jackson Jr. Under 5.5 Assists (-145)

Huskies guard Andre Jackson Jr. has taken a massive leap in the tournament. He has become the team's top facilitator and clearly has peaked at the right time.

In the tournament, Jackson is averaging seven assists per game. However, this San Diego State team will be the toughest matchup it's had in the tournament in terms of defensive efficiency.

Jackson will have the ball in his hands a lot but may be forced to take on a different role, as the Aztecs have tremendous perimeter defense and will be making a concerted effort to contain Adama Sanogo down low.

Aside from the matchup, Jackson is due for regression in the assists department. His total has hit a number that he has gone over in just 13 of the 35 games he's played this season.

That hit rate gives us implied odds of -170 that he'll go under again. The juice is worth the squeeze here.


Alex Karaban Over 7.5 Points (-115)

UConn has proven to be an offensive juggernaut throughout this tournament, and it's tough to stop. The Huskies can beat opponents in a variety of ways. One guy who exemplifies this is freshman Alex Karaban.

Karaban is mainly a sharpshooter and has been lights out from beyond the arc. He's averaging over three 3-pointers per game in the tournament and will be a threat from deep tonight despite the tough matchup.

Although, another area where we've seen Karaban succeed is in the paint. He's shown great ability to run the floor and score in transition by finishing around the rim, but he could get more buckets inside with the extra attention on Sanogo down low.

Looking at the bigger picture, Karaban has gone over this point total in 25 of his 38 games this season. That gives us implied odds of -192 that he'll go over again tonight.

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Daniel Preciado
Jun 20, 2024 UTC