Oklahoma vs. West Virginia Odds & Betting Pick: Can’t Trust Streaky Mountaineers

Credit:

John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: Derek Culver

  • Updated odds for West Virginia vs. Oklahoma list the Mountaineers as an 8-point favorite for Saturday afternoon's meeting in Morgantown (4 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  • WVU has been ice cold on offense and has dropped five of its last six games as a result.
  • See our West Virginia vs. Oklahoma betting pick below.

Oklahoma at West Virginia Odds

  • Odds: WVU -8 [In WV? Bet now]
  • Over/Under: 135.5
  • Time: 4 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN2

West Virginia has been ice cold, losing five of its last six, but the Mountaineers are still top 10 in many power ratings and boast one of the best defenses in the nation.

Can WVU get right at home against Oklahoma? Let’s dive in.

How Odds Have Moved

The public is all over Oklahoma given West Virginia’s recent struggles. The Sooners are getting 65% of the bets and 69% of the money.

That said, none of that money appears to be particularly sharp. After opening -7.5 and -8, some books have gone to WVU -8.5.

When Oklahoma Has the Ball

After a three-game losing streak, Oklahoma got back in the win column with a 63% shooting night from 2-point range against Texas Tech. A +14 rebounding margin was the effort the Sooners needed to increase their chances of making the dance. Oklahoma must now deal with a West Virginia team that is desperate for a victory.

West Virginia remains a strong rebounding team, but it hasn’t mattered. Opponents have shot lights out since the beginning of February against the Mountaineers.

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images. Pictured: Bob Huggins

Oklahoma will need to be lights out shooting as the worst offensive rebounding team in the Big 12. The Sooners have a heavy point distribution from 3-point territory, while West Virginia fields a defense that is fourth in the nation in defending the perimeter.

The Sooners will need their best effort from long distance to win this game, no easy task even with West Virginia slumping. — Collin Wilson

When West Virginia Has the Ball

The season averages make the West Virginia offense look competent. But the past few weeks have been completely contrary to the season numbers in a string of losses. A 12% 3-point effort against TCU highlights a number of bad shooting games from the Mountaineers. If there is a team to get right against, it may be the Sooners defense.

Oklahoma is dead last in forcing turnovers through conference play. Opponents have their highest point distribution from 3-point range against the Sooners, as Oklahoma has allowed Big 12 teams to shoot 34.5% from deep. The Mountaineers should have no issues in transition or getting a clean look at the basket against the Sooners defense.

West Virginia does not rely on the three nearly as much as points in the paint, but the Mountaineers shot 30% from 2-point distance against Oklahoma on Feb. 8. They’re due for some positive regression.

That game started the longest losing stretch of the season for the Mountaineers. For West Virginia to win this game, Derek Culver and Oscar Tshiebwe must deliver down low. — Collin Wilson

Stuckey: How I’m Betting WVU-Oklahoma

It’s a great spot on paper for WVU, which has lost two in a row and five of its last six. Getting back home to Morgantown in a revenge spot against an OU team that beat the Mountaineers in Norman by 10 should result in Bob Huggins having the troops ready to go.

That said, I’ve soured significantly on this WVU team in recent weeks. After having the Mountaineers in my top 10 in early February, I’ve dropped them down to No. 26 after this recent skid. The defense still grades out as elite and they have as much size as anybody in the country, which enables them to dominate on the glass.

I originally thought those two areas of strength (rebounding and defense) could mask the glaring offensive issues, but I’m not so sure anymore. The offense seems to be regressing. It’s a unit that simply can’t shoot (334th in 3P shooting) and one that turns the ball over far too often (304th in turnover percentage).

As a result, WVU just goes through horrific scoring droughts that makes it tough to back as a favorite, especially when you consider WVU shoots just 63.7% from the free throw line (335th in the country).

Oklahoma should get crushed on the glass but it’s a Sooners team that doesn’t turn it over (21st nationally in turnover percentage) and defends extremely well at the rim — two keys against a WVU team that turns teams over at an elite level and relies on getting its points inside as much as any team.

I actually see value with Oklahoma at +8 or above as my numbers make this a tad under +7, but the spot may keep me away. — Stuckey

[In West Virginia, NJ, PA, or IN? Bet now at DraftKings.]

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