College Basketball Betting Odds, Predictions: Our Top Pick for Richmond vs. Davidson (Sunday, March 13)
G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Brajkovic.
Richmond vs. Davidson Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
An automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament will be on the line when the Richmond Spiders take on the Davidson Wildcats in the Atlantic 10 Tournament Championship on Sunday.
Davidson is likely safely in the NCAA Tournament, but that doesn’t mean it will be any less motivated. It will sweep the A-10 regular season and conference tournament titles with a win over the Spiders. >
In the quarterfinals on Friday, Davidson beat Fordham, 74-56, and it beat Saint Louis, 84-69, in the semifinals yesterday.
The Wildcats won the only regular-season meeting against the Spiders, 87-84, on the road. However, Richmond has already knocked off two of the top seeds in this tournament.
After entering the conference tournament as a 6-seed, Richmond won a physical battle over Rhode Island by five. In the quarterfinals, it knocked off rival VCU, 75-64. Finally, the Spiders overcame a 15-point deficit to defeat Dayton, 68-64, in the semifinals.
While Richmond will look to pull off another upset, I see value in the total.
The Spiders have not exactly been the greatest defensive team in the world for most of the year. They rank 117th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 168th in points allowed per game and 193rd in defensive rating.
However, they’ve been locking down in the A-10 Tournament.
In the three games thus far, Richmond has allowed 62.3 points per game and held its opponents to 25.4% from the 3-point line. It will face a tough task in continuing its defensive surge against Davidson. However, Richmond has the offensive firepower to keep pace.
The Spiders boast three double-digit scorers in forward Tyler Burton, forward Grant Golden and guard Jacob Gilyard. Burton was a second-team All-Atlantic selection, while Gilyard made the third team. In the conference tournament, Burton has averaged 14 points and nine rebounds.
Golden is putting 13.6 points and 5.6 rebounds per game, while Gilyard is averaging 17.6 points, four assists,and 4.6 steals. Gilyard scored a career-high 32 points against VCU. Richmond will need its big three to have a big day to pull off the win over Davidson.
Richmond will have to deal with a Wildcats offense that is one of the best in the country. Davidson ranks 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 15th in offensive rating. It’s averaging 79 points through the first two games in the A-10 Tournament.
The Cats will counter the Richmond attack with four double-digit scorers, led by guard Foster Loyer. He has scored 20 points or more in six of his last eight games.
However, it was his teammate, forward Luka Brajkovic, who won Atlantic 10 Player of The Year. Davidson didn’t need much from him against Fordham, but he recorded 14 points, 10 rebounds and five assists against Saint Louis.
Forward Hyunjung Lee has scored in double figures in 13 of his past 14 games and is averaging 13.5 and seven rebounds in the Atlantic 10 Tournament.
Guard Michael Jones broke out a shooting slump with 13 points on 5-of-7 shooting against Saint Louis. He is one of three 40% 3-point shooters on the Wildcats’ roster, along with Loyer and Brajkovic. Lee is just behind them at 38.7%. Davidson ranks seventh nationally in 3-point shooting percentage and will be going against a Richmond defense that ranks 219th in 3-point defense.
Richmond vs. Davidson Betting Pick
The first meeting between Richmond and Davidson saw 171 points scored, and the total for the conference tournament championship is at 137 points.
Yes, you have to take into account that Richmond will be playing its fourth game in four days and Davidson will be on its third straight game. However, these are two teams that combine to average close to 148 points and rank outside of the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency and defensive rating.
Richmond has faced two of the conference’s stingiest defenses the last two days in VCU and Dayton and averaged 71.5 points in those games. It should find easier footing against Davidson.
On the other end, Davidson’s team-centered style and ball movement should create many open looks, particularly from the 3-point line.
These are two offensive-minded teams playing with a championship on the line. With a low line for the total, I expect it to easily go over.
Pick: Over 137 (Play to 140)
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