San Diego State vs Boise State Odds, Pick: The Bet to Make

Below, we have San Diego State vs. Boise State odds and a pick.

When two coaches have consistent identities and stay at the same program for many seasons, you can start to identify matchup tendencies when their teams face off against one another. The Mountain West typically has a good amount of coach turnover, but Leon Rice and Brian Dutcher have been at Boise State and San Diego State, respectively, with similar play styles for more than half a decade now.

The two coaches will meet in Boise on Saturday afternoon with an 11 a.m. local time tip-off. Not only is that a much earlier start than college players are used to, but the matchups between these two programs consistently play slower than the market expects.

A look at the matchup history finds almost every matchup with lower efficiency, fewer possessions and Unders. The trend across the sport has been increased scoring this season with the new block/charge calls, but these two teams will lead with their defense-first approaches.

The Aztecs no longer have Nathan Mensah patrolling the paint and taking away successful rim attacks, but the San Diego State defense remains elite on the perimeter. It consistently grades out as one of the best at guarding the 3-point line under Dutcher, and this year is no different. The Aztecs rank 16th nationally in 3-point field goal percentage allowed.

San Diego State has finished inside the top 25 each of the last three years and inside the top 40 in four of the last five seasons. You're not going to consistently make shots from the perimeter against this team because of its length and physicality making life difficult for shooters.

The Aztecs apply a ton of ball pressure to take opposing offenses out of rhythm and like to force teams to create shots in isolation by disrupting ball screens. Boise State doesn't really have a natural point guard to replace the loss of Marcus Shaver Jr., and the result is 6-foot-9 Cam Martin as the primary assist-getter.

San Diego State usually can out-physical teams on the offensive glass and make up for its mediocre first-shot offense by generating extra looks. Boise State is an elite defensive rebounding team though, so it should be able to take away a key piece of the Aztecs' offense.

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San Diego State is attempting more 3s than usual this year and trying to have more spacing and shooting in its offense. That will make defending the Aztecs even easier for a Boise State roster that is once again elite at defending the 3-point line. The Broncos are a top-40 3-point defense for the third time in five years under Rice, and they're elite on the defensive glass every single year under Rice.

The Broncos sacrifice transition offense opportunities to make sure they rebound well on defense, and that enables this game to be played much more exclusively in the half court than normal games for these two teams.

Boise State's biggest problem defensively is when it faces teams with guards who can create off the dribble and have excellent shot-making. The Broncos don't have elite individual defenders but they defend well as a unit. San Diego State's offense doesn't really have the individual shot makers to carry it, which has been a trend for a few years in the Dutcher offense.

The Aztecs make their offense work through brute force in the half court and neither offense has the individual shot-makers to overcome the high quality team defenses.

The KenPom projection for this game is 68 total possessions. Here are the last five meetings between these two teams by KenPom total possessions: 66, 59, 61, 60 and 60. All five of those games went under the closing total.

The matchup favors the under at 135 or better and this has all the makings of an ugly Mountain West rock fight between the league's two best defenses once again.

Pick: Under 137.5 (Play to 135)

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