San Diego State vs Nevada Odds, Pick: Target Total

The Friday schedule is embarrassingly sparse with only three games, but fortunately, the few contests being played are intriguing. That includes a Mountain West battle between San Diego State and Nevada, both of which have a lot to play for in February.

The Aztecs are comfortably in the NCAA Tournament right now, slotted as a 5-seed by Bracket Matrix. Stacking wins through the Mountain West Tournament could afford them a bump up a line or two, but the true treasure on the line is a potential regular-season title.

Just a week ago, Utah State held a two-game lead on San Diego State. Then the Aztecs toppled the Aggies at Viejas Arena, narrowing the gap. Another Utah State loss this week made it a tie, and for that San Diego State gets to thank… Nevada.

The Wolf Pack pulled off a huge road win over the Aggies, reviving their own NCAA Tournament at-large hopes in the process. Steve Alford’s squad is likely still on the outside looking in, but another big conference victory could push it above the cut line.

This revelation should come as no surprise: The Aztecs’ identity remains on the defensive end. Even following the loss of longtime anchor Nathan Mensah, Brian Dutcher’s squad remains in KenPom’s top 25 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.

The Aztecs are long and physical at every spot, and Dutcher’s teaching certainly instills that identity. The backcourt duo of Lamont Butler and Reese Waters can stifle even the best opposition. Jay Pal and Miles Byrd have emerged into multi-positional Swiss Army knives. And though they are nowhere near Mensah’s stratosphere, Jaedon LeDee and Miles Heide have been stout at the rim.

San Diego State leads the Mountain West in 2-point percentage defensively. The Aztecs’ shell keeps foes away from the rim; San Diego State allows shots at the bucket at a bottom-30 rate nationally, per Hoop-Math. Thus, contested jumpers are opponents’ primary sources of offense, and that is difficult to sustain.

Offensively, this season has largely been the LeDee show. He has blossomed from an efficient reserve to an All-American star, bludgeoning foes in the paint with his chiseled frame and relentless work ethic. Butler and Darrion Trammell give Dutcher two trusty ball-handlers, and Waters and Micah Parrish have emerged into lethal wing threats.

San Diego State can still go through scoring droughts, but LeDee helps stabilize the offensive floor.

Similar to San Diego State, Nevada has leaned into an identity featuring a plethora of perimeter length. At 6 feet 6 inches, point guard Kenan Blackshear is a menace at the point of attack on both ends. Fellow 6-foot-6 perimeter piece Daniel Foster adds to the versatility, and even sharpshooter Jarod Lucas is listed at 6 feet 4 inches.

Like San Diego State, that has led to a defense that fuels Nevada’s success. The Wolf Pack rank 39th in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, showing impressive balance across the board statistically. They rise to another level defensively when K.J. Hymes is on the floor; per CBB Analytics, Nevada is nine points better per 100 possessions on that end with Hymes out there.

However, the offense suffers badly with Hymes on the court. As such, Alford plays a ton of lineups with Nick Davidson as the nominal center. Davidson spaces the floor from the frontcourt, and Nevada is 24 points better per 100 possessions on offense when he is on the court. The most balanced version of the Wolf Pack is when he and Hymes share the court together.

Notably, though, the offense has sputtered slightly in league play. The Wolf Pack rank dead last in 2-point percentage against conference opponents — a real indictment considering Air Force and San Jose State are a combined 2-18 in Mountain West play.

This game is a coin flip to me, which agrees with the market price. I generally like San Diego State more, but Nevada’s home court is no joke. KenPom slots the Wolf Pack at 20th in his Home Court Advantage estimates, and Reno has the advantage of altitude.

If you are looking for a differentiator on the side, perhaps it’s this: Alford is 8-2 against the spread against Dutcher, per Bet Labs, covering by an average of 4.05 points per game. It’s pretty rare for a coach to have Dutcher’s number to that extent.

However, I will look to the total. The Wolf Pack could struggle to score against San Diego State's interior defense. This is the Mountain West's worst 2-point percentage offense against its best 2-point percentage defense. Plus, both teams are better defensively than offensively.

Additionally, in league play, Nevada is 2-7 on the total (seven games have gone under, per TeamRankings). These two played in San Diego earlier this year, with the Azetcs winning 71-59 in a 64-possession war. Repeating that pace would bode well for the under.

That gives me enough of an edge to bet it, as I think this devolves into another slower battle to scrape out points.

Pick: Under 142 (Play to 139)