NCAAB Odds, Pick for St. John’s vs Marquette

Things change quickly in college hoops.

When the Marquette Golden Eagles visited Madison Square Garden to battle the St. John's Red Storm on January 20, the teams were in very different positions.

Marquette, which opened the season as the favorites to win the Big East, had stumbled to a 3-3 start in conference. Meanwhile, St. John's had just dropped two road games, yet still found itself punching among the Big East's best at 4-3 in conference.

Marquette stole a one-point win that day and the two teams have diverged ever since. Marquette hasn't lost since, ripping off four straight wins, including three away from home. St. John's lost twice more and now finds itself on the postseason bubble.

Before that Marquette game, ESPN's Joe Lunardi slotted St. John's as the 30th team in his bracket, an eight-seed. A few short weeks later, Lunardi has the Red Storm as the first team out of the Big Dance.

On Saturday in Milwaukee, these teams will re-convene for a second meeting. Can the Johnnies use this game to catapult back into their winning ways?

For most teams in most conferences, squandering a great start to league play by losing five of six games would mean something terrible has happened. Maybe an injury or a major shift in game plan.

At St. John's, the Red Storm have really just been the victim of a tough Big East slate. Five losses in about three weeks is brutal, but those losses came at Seton Hall, Creighton and Xavier, plus home games to Marquette and UConn.

And two of those losses came by a single point.

In that six game stretch, the Johnnies shot just 25% from long range and made more the five 3-pointers just once. This team's natural state rests somewhere between its 4-1 start in conference and the 1-5 stretch we saw recently.

Ultimately, it'll be the defensive end of the floor that will define which direction this season trends next for St. John's. In recent losses, Rick Pitino's club has gotten foul happy on defense and had lapses on the offensive glass.

For a team that wants to play high pressure defense, it's imperative to limit the number of times opponents are being bailed out by free throw opportunities or put backs around the basket.

When St. John's finds itself in close games the rest of the season, I'll have an eye on Pitino's lineup decisions. The quartet of Jordan Dingle, Daniss Jenkins, Joel Soriano and RJ Luis Jr. has clearly been St. John's best option, per data from EvanMiya.

Finding that fifth option from Harvard transfer Chris Ledlum, freshman Brady Dunlap, UConn transfer Nahiem Alleyne and Oregon State transfer Glenn Taylor Jr. has proved a tricky balance, with each offering a unique skill set, depending on the matchup.

After a surprising 2-3 start in Big East play, Marquette has ripped off six in row, including four road dates. The Golden Eagles have been dominant in that span, going 5-1 ATS with the lone failure to cover coming in a 13-point victory in which Marquette's lead over DePaul was as big as 19 points.

The Golden Eagles' offense has exploded in recent weeks, including 45% 3-point shooting over their last four contests.

Tyler Kolek has been particularly fantastic, hitting eight of his last 15 attempts from long range. He's playing like the All-American candidate many expected, in some ways dragging Marquette to its recent wins. His 32 points, nine assists, six rebounds and three steals buried Villanova late last month.

During the six-game heater, Kolek is posting 18.5 points and 9.5 assists per game while shooting over 43% from deep.

His ability to score opens up so much for his teammates. Kolek is a ball dominant point guard, triggering a ton of Marquette's offense action, so the more eyeballs he can draw to his own ability to score, the better chance he has to find Oso Ighodaro as a roller or one of his hot shooting teammates ready to launch a triple.

This spot has some flashing yellow lights, with Marquette playing its best ball of the season in recent weeks. It's certainly asking for a regression performance.

That only seems more likely considering how St. John's has played of late, appearing due for a bounce back at some point.

The early money is onto that thinking, with 90% of bets and 81% of the money bet on this game on the Johnnies (as of late Friday afternoon). At the opening number of +8.5, it's an enticing play. As that money continues to roll in and that number falls, I wouldn't chase it any further.

Even if Marquette goes cold, the Golden Eagles can find ways grind out a win on their home floor.

Pick: Lean St. John's +8.5 (No Lower)