Syracuse vs UNC Odds, Pick for Saturday

The North Carolina Tar Heels are running under the radar at this point in the season. UNC has a 3-0 record on the road in ACC play, which seems unheard of with how league play has started across the country.

The Syracuse Orange will trek to Chapel Hill to take on the Tar Heels. Cuse has been solid on the defensive end, but it hasn't riddled off a top-50 KenPom win outside of beating Oregon in December.

UNC should carry a heavy edge offensively and on the glass.

The Orange have a top-40 defense, but they have an offensive effective field goal percentage below 50%. Much of this is from being unable to shoot 3s. They're only hitting 31.1% from deep, and they shoot amongst the fewest 3s in all of college basketball.

At least they know their strengths.

Even if it takes the ball inside the arc, Syracuse is only hitting a touch over 50% on 2-pointers. UNC is ranked in the top 50 in opponent 2-point percentage, and per Shot Quality, the Tar Heels rank in the top 75 in points per possession at the rim on defense.

In addition, UNC owns a top-25 Rim-and-3 Rate defensively, so it's hard to envision where Syracuse is going to manufacture points. The Orange are about average when it comes to getting to the free-throw line, so this won't be much of a saving grace on the road, either.

One detriment that's loomed large for Cuse this season has been crashing the glass. The Orange rank below 235th in both offensive and defensive rebounding. UNC ranks in the top 95 in the NCAA in both. Harrison Ingram and Armando Bacot should have a field day on the glass on the both ends.

UNC's defense is top-10, but the Heels can also score. They're only shooting a touch over 50% from 2-point range, but they rank in the top 30 in free throw attempt rate.

Sure, Syracuse doesn't foul much defensively, but home court advantage entails getting a few calls from the referees.

The Heels are shooting 36% as a team from downtown. Ingram and RJ Davis are the players over 39%, which is a welcomed change, as both shot under 37% from deep last year.

Syracuse is particularly bad in this facet of the game. The Orange rank below 300th in Open 3 Rate on defense. UNC ranks in the top 30 in Open 3 Rate, so look for much more production from outside for the Tar Heels.

Yes, UNC doesn't usually shoot too many 3s, but when it does against the Orange, the shots will be open.

UNC also doesn't turn the ball over much, which is usually an edge Syracuse can hold over its opponents. The Orange rank 30th in defensive turnover rate, but they rank 154th offensively.

Finally, UNC’s interior defense should reign supreme in this matchup because of Bacot. Syracuse almost exclusively has to go inside for points, but the discrepancy between the inside production of these two teams will be an issue for Syracuse.

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The Orange haven't shown enough to contend with one of the best teams in the country on the road.

UNC’s size, 3-point shooting and interior play will lead it to a rout of the Orange.

UNC holds an advantage in almost all areas of this game and will negate any edge Cuse may occasionally have.

Take the Tar Heels on the spread, and play them to -14.

Pick: North Carolina -12.5 (Play to -14)